Joined: Jun 23, 2007 Posts: 125 Location: Se tx near houtson
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:54 am Post subject: Hurricane dean makes landfall.
After making landfall this morning dean set some records. A gps dropsoned, according to nhc, measured flight level winds of 178kts. It measured a pressure of 906 milibars. Dean was the ninth strongest cane in the atlantic and the third to make landfall while it was that strong. A lnadfall with a cat 5 hs not occured since adnrew and a landfall witha cat 5 this powerful has not occured since the 1935 labor day storm in the keys. I do not know how high the death toll will be when it hits mexico. I do not know what it will be in the yucatan. With a landfall this powerful the damage will be amazing. Pictures should start coming in soon. I will get the advisorey that had this information posted ehre in a moment. It will have 18 hrs to regain cat 3 strength.
Here is the advisorey from 5:00 showing those historic strengths:
From the nhc:
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS
NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST
NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124
KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED
WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE
IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
DEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
A BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.
ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
COASTLINE OF MEXICO.
WTNT44 KNHC 211444
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 265 Location: Cape Coral FL
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane dean makes landfall.
I also read you Texas, Your so vain? lol reminds me of a song. Anyway, the forecast was for Dean to leave land as a cat 2. He is leaving as a cat 1 and looks a little ragged to the north. Do you think there is time to strengthen to a cat 3 as forecast? _________________ GO NOLES
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