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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather: Forums

Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - That little thing.... now invest 92L
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That little thing.... now invest 92L
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral Online Weather Forum Index -> 2007 Hurricane Season
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Manuel
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Joined: Sep 01, 2007
Posts: 106
Location: Front Royal VA

PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:15 am    Post subject: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote

Will this one become Gabrielle, or will we need to wait for the "big one" still in Africa? I'm willing to bet it will be this one. However, the NHC doesn't seem to give it much importance...yet. The convection is growing and it is in a far more dangerous position for the US east coast than Felix. What do you all think?
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 1885
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:43 am    Post subject: Re: That little thing in the tropical mid-Atlantic Reply with quote

Manuel wrote:
Will this one become Gabrielle, or will we need to wait for the "big one" still in Africa? I'm willing to bet it will be this one. However, the NHC doesn't seem to give it much importance...yet. The convection is growing and it is in a far more dangerous position for the US east coast than Felix. What do you all think?


Good timing, that is now Invest 98L. winds 25 kts. 13.5N & 36W. Yes the more northern location is always cause for concern.
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:53 am    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote

First model run. No Intensity models yet.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1231 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 36.0W 13.7N 38.3W 13.9N 40.6W 14.0N 43.0W
BAMD 13.5N 36.0W 13.8N 39.0W 13.9N 41.9W 14.0N 44.7W
BAMM 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.2W 13.6N 40.6W 13.6N 42.8W
LBAR 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.7W 13.8N 41.4W 14.1N 43.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 45.6W 14.8N 50.5W 15.4N 55.8W 15.8N 61.0W
BAMD 14.1N 47.4W 14.9N 52.7W 15.7N 58.1W 16.2N 63.7W
BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.4N 49.6W 13.5N 54.2W 13.7N 58.9W
LBAR 14.4N 46.6W 15.0N 51.6W 14.9N 55.9W 12.2N 58.2W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:56 am    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote


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Lou
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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 9:03 am    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote


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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 9:10 am    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 11:01 am    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1351 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 36.0W 13.7N 38.3W 13.9N 40.6W 14.0N 43.0W
BAMD 13.5N 36.0W 13.8N 39.0W 13.9N 41.9W 14.0N 44.7W
BAMM 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.2W 13.6N 40.6W 13.6N 42.8W
LBAR 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.7W 13.8N 41.4W 14.1N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 45.6W 14.8N 50.5W 15.4N 55.8W 15.8N 61.0W
BAMD 14.1N 47.4W 14.9N 52.7W 15.7N 58.1W 16.2N 63.7W
BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.4N 49.6W 13.5N 54.2W 13.7N 58.9W
LBAR 14.4N 46.6W 15.0N 51.6W 14.9N 55.9W 12.2N 58.2W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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chris
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005
Posts: 1383
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 2:10 pm    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote

This system needs to watched very closely. I actually have more concern with the development of 98L than with Felix at this point. May sound crazy but I feel it's in a better position to threaten the US.
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alorfi
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Joined: Dec 28, 2006
Posts: 340
Location: Cape Coral, FL

PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 5:57 pm    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote

I agree, Chris. This system will not have the enormous high pressure pushing it to the WSW like Dean. Felix is not much of a threat to the US either, but 98L certainly bears watching.
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Nolesjeff
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Joined: Jun 14, 2006
Posts: 240
Location: Maiden NC

PostPosted: Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:22 pm    Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L Reply with quote

ccstorms wrote:


From the looks of this, Everyone in the Atlantic Basin should be wary. holy shit
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