That little thing.... now invest 92L

ccstorms

This area is quite interesting. It has been pulsating up and down in response to the diurnal cycle and each upward pulse is stronger. Should this develop it will be a threat down the road to the Bahamas and possibly the southeast coast.

_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms

The area of disturbed weather east of the Leeward Islands is now Invest 92L.
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms

_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms

Get ready for the media hysteria. Models run below brings a Hurricane to the Florida east coast.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1553 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1200 070910 0000 070910 1200 070911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 60.0W 19.2N 63.2W 20.3N 66.3W
BAMD 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 59.3W 19.4N 61.7W 20.4N 64.2W
BAMM 17.5N 57.0W 18.3N 59.7W 19.1N 62.5W 20.1N 65.4W
LBAR 17.5N 57.0W 18.1N 59.1W 19.1N 61.6W 20.0N 64.1W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1200 070912 1200 070913 1200 070914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 69.6W 24.1N 74.7W 26.9N 78.1W 29.6N 80.2W
BAMD 21.5N 66.5W 23.5N 70.6W 25.0N 73.9W 25.6N 77.1W
BAMM 21.0N 68.3W 23.2N 73.5W 25.5N 77.5W 27.6N 80.2W
LBAR 20.9N 66.4W 24.0N 70.0W 26.4N 71.8W 27.2N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 60KTS 72KTS 80KTS
DSHP 46KTS 60KTS 72KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms

_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

Wthrwatcher

Well with an active season at hand I guess it is just a matter of time before Fl. might come into play. Scary thing is, I think it's still pretty early in the game. Stay away you bad storms...

!! Time to go to Sams Club for more popcorn

and more

Thanks for the timely updates. Looks like we are going to be reading alot of them for the next few weeks. Jim

capeskywatcher

92L is now on floater 4.

ccstorms

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1923 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070909 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1800 070910 0600 070910 1800 070911 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 57.0W 19.6N 59.6W 20.8N 62.5W 22.0N 65.3W
BAMD 18.7N 57.0W 19.6N 59.3W 20.7N 61.7W 21.7N 63.8W
BAMM 18.7N 57.0W 19.6N 59.5W 20.6N 62.1W 21.6N 64.6W
LBAR 18.7N 57.0W 19.5N 58.7W 20.7N 60.6W 21.8N 62.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1800 070912 1800 070913 1800 070914 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 68.2W 26.2N 72.9W 29.1N 75.9W 31.9N 77.9W
BAMD 22.6N 65.8W 24.0N 69.1W 24.3N 72.0W 24.0N 75.5W
BAMM 22.5N 67.1W 24.5N 71.5W 26.4N 75.1W 27.9N 78.4W
LBAR 23.1N 63.8W 25.5N 65.2W 26.1N 65.7W 24.8N 68.8W
SHIP 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 55.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

drumstick · Junior Member Joined: Sep 10, 2007 Posts: 10 Location: FL

Hi! I'm new posting here but I've been a huge fan for years!

Lou,

Could you please explain the importance (if any) of the path of Invest 92L approaching box #1 in the Herbert's Box theory?

Thanks so much!

WPB

Nolesjeff · Last edited by Nolesjeff on Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

I believe it is that 90% of all tropical systems that have hit florida passed through 1 of the 2 Heberts boxes . Not 90% of storms that pass through the boxes hit Florida though.
_________________
GO NOLES