Hi! I'm new posting here but I've been a huge fan for years!
Lou,
Could you please explain the importance (if any) of the path of Invest 92L approaching box #1 in the Herbert's Box theory?
Thanks so much!
WPB
Hi and welcome That Hebert Box (no 'R') scenario is only for Major hurricanes and I don't really pay much attention to that theory. Just as an example.... both Dean and Felix passed through box 2 and didn't come to Florida and Andrew missed box 1 and hit Florida. Where the TC's go is dictated by the atmospheric conditions at the time and not by some imaginary lines. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 512 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L
What about our dropped invest 92?
Still showing flare up of convection. Running into an extension of boundry connected to deep low moving into north central Atlantic. That boundery seems to be breaking loose from it's mother low.
Will is allow for any future developement of 92? That's it at the bottom center on the insert.
closer view-it's near 20n / 60w
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L
The mid-level circulation that was Invest 92L looked good yesterday but fell apart. The wave continues west and it's best chance for development will be when it reaches the southern Bahamas. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Hi and welcome That Hebert Box (no 'R') scenario is only for Major hurricanes and I don't really pay much attention to that theory. Just as an example.... both Dean and Felix passed through box 2 and didn't come to Florida and Andrew missed box 1 and hit Florida. Where the TC's go is dictated by the atmospheric conditions at the time and not by some imaginary lines.
Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L
ccstorms wrote:
The mid-level circulation that was Invest 92L looked good yesterday but fell apart. The wave continues west and it's best chance for development will be when it reaches the southern Bahamas.
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 512 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L
LOU WROTE
The mid-level circulation that was Invest 92L looked good yesterday but fell apart. The wave continues west and it's best chance for development will be when it reaches the southern Bahamas.
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
_______________________________________________________
What are the requirements then for a system to be designated an Invest?
You state 92 lost it's mid level circulation. Does it then become what is reffered to as an 'open wave'? Do you need circulation only in the mid levels, lower levels, combination of both? Believe an upper level low is not considered in being called an Invest. Yes/No
Thanks
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L
bob wrote:
LOU WROTE
The mid-level circulation that was Invest 92L looked good yesterday but fell apart. The wave continues west and it's best chance for development will be when it reaches the southern Bahamas.
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
_______________________________________________________
What are the requirements then for a system to be designated an Invest?
You state 92 lost it's mid level circulation. Does it then become what is reffered to as an 'open wave'? Do you need circulation only in the mid levels, lower levels, combination of both? Believe an upper level low is not considered in being called an Invest. Yes/No
Thanks
bob
I'll answer the last part first. The only time you would see an ULL become an Invest is if the circulation is working it's way down to the surface and has convection near the center. As for the requirements for an Invest I'll let the NHC answer that which is as follows.
"Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose. ".
In other words, an Invest is an area of disturbed weather that the NHC considers to have some potential and by declaring an Invest it starts the process as described above. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 512 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 11:11 pm Post subject: Re: That little thing.... now invest 92L
Here's the latest on what was Invest 92 as of 10:30pm:
ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING OVER THE EXTREME CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
Weather
Radar
Satellite
Lightning
Forecast
Tropics
Almanac
Live Products
Fishing Reports
Other Info
Weblinks
Site Sponsors
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Check your private messages
Log in
That Hebert Box (no 'R') scenario is only for Major hurricanes and I don't really pay much attention to that theory. Just as an example.... both Dean and Felix passed through box 2 and didn't come to Florida and Andrew missed box 1 and hit Florida. Where the TC's go is dictated by the atmospheric conditions at the time and not by some imaginary lines. 
New Today: 5
Online Stats: 
