40W/10N and eastward ??

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 8:30 pm Post subject: 40W/10N and eastward ??

Looks like alot of energy piling up in the East Atlantic Question

One system at almost 40W and one rolling off Africa (big spin), and more behind. El Sluggo 3 may be the opening act for a busy couple of weeks. Rolling Eyes

bob · Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

Canadian, GFS and NGP models are showing developement in that area..
Have to remember that Hurricane Season runs thru 11/30. Another 11 weeks and with the warm sst's there is no reason to think things will settle down till then or beyond.

bob
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ccstorms · Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:38 am Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

The GFS has been yelling about this for a week now. It did the same thing before Dean and was right on. The CMC as usual goes hog wild with it.
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Wthrwatcher · Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

Do the models still show something happening in this area ? Looks interesting at the moment, but I guess we have to see if anything persists. Could just fizzle overnight. Question

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:23 pm Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

Manuel · Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:29 pm Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

I think most models have a tendency to steer too far north in this area. This one could follow the same pattern of the previous two and end up in the Caribbean region. Maybe close to Puerto Rico this time...We will see.

bob · Last edited by bob on Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

AGREE with Lou.

Models show any development heads north out into the middle of the Atlantic where rumors has it there are some fish Laughing

Manuel

Lou's site (cc storms) has all the major model forecasts. As he will remind you every so often, just looking at the models doesn't make us expert interpetors of those models Very Happy

. But gradually by looking at the models, reading up on different terminology, receiving feedback from your post's, combined with what you already know and understand..
guess what? you begin to form an opinion! You will soon find out what others think but it's still your opinion based on what you know. supercool

bob
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bob · Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:56 pm Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

Manuel

Just noticed you are in Front Royal, Virginia. Isn't that at the northern end of Shenandoah National Park? I remember us taking a hike down one of the trails, seeing a bear along the path and walking slowly backwards to the parking area all the while looking for a good tree to climb as if that would do us any good!

You would be far enough inland to escape the worst of whatever Gabrielle has to offer. worst case would be some good rain which you could probably use just like the rest of us.

bob
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ccstorms · Posted: Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:09 am Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

The northward bias of the models is caused when they forecast development too early. Deeper systems that far east will have more of a poleward motion. What usually happens is the development takes place west of 40 which negates the models early northward trends.
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Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:47 am Post subject: Re: 40W/10N and eastward ??

Looks like there are two or three interesting areas out there now. Some more action shortly Question

Maybe the H and I storms, as the G storm moves up and out into the maritimes. We may get every bit of the active season forecasted by all the pro's. popcorn

Just stay away from Fl.!

Don't mess with us !!