90L/TD9/ Now TS Humberto/Now Hurricane Humberto

Nolesjeff · Last edited by Nolesjeff on Thu Sep 13, 2007 5:35 am; edited 1 time in total

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
100 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RETURNED TO BASE FOR MECHANICAL
REASONS...BUT A SECOND AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HUMBERTO
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
_________________
GO NOLES

MeteorologistTV

I wouldn't be surprised to see this strengthen to a strong Tropical Storm with 55-60mph winds.Houston and nearby areas are going to have some serious flooding issues with Humberto.

chris

Serious flooding for sure. Storm is starting to get some great characteristics to it before landfall. It didn't really have a whole lot of time to develop but it sure has a solid looking rotation to it. Wind speed is starting to pick up in Galveston Bay.

http://www.capeweather.com/buoy-data-galveston-bay.html
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
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ccstorms

Recon reports 998 MB.
MAX FL WIND 55 KT OUTBOUND E QUAD 23:08:30 Z
MAX SFC WINDS 51 KT OUTBOUND E QUAD 23:08:40 Z
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

Other models are joining in on the loop back to the gulf. Not good as the rains will continue.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

Manuel

It already seems to be moving NE, according to radar, but very slowly....

MeteorologistTV

Looks like this recent NE movement will keep it over water longer.It will likely continue strengthening until landfall.

MeteorologistTV

Winds now 65MPH

000
WTNT44 KNHC 130244
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

HOUSTON WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS
INTENSIFIED. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 65 TO 70 KT WINDS AROUND THE
3000 FT LEVEL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE
CENTER. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 55 KT
WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. RADAR REFLECTIVITY
DATA INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A
SMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS. BASED MAINLY ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 29.0N 94.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.1N 93.9W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 31.6N 92.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 32.5N 91.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Nolesjeff

Hurricane HUMBERTO Update

000
WTNT64 KNHC 130714
TCUAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
210 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT AT AROUND 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH...135 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
_________________
GO NOLES

Wthrwatcher

Unfortunately for Texas, this "extraordinary bear" brings unwelcome rain, Sad

but hopefully a "drought buster" for states like Miss. Ala. and Ga. Smile