I'm Getting Dizzy..................

alorfi

If you know the absolute meteorological truth.........WHY ARE YOU IN THE LANDSCAPING BUSINESS ???

Money. The forecasting firm was more time-consuming than profitable. Upon moving to Florida with a wife and four children, I certainly could not make a living doing that again. In fact, there are very few private forecasting firms down here, probably because there simply is very little need for them outside of hurricane season.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

ccstorms

The NHC is alerting recon just in case the southwest Carib area begins to crank. The area near Panama is drifting north while a tropical wave is coming in from the east.

SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF JAMAICA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 17/2000Z A. 18/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 17/1600Z C. 18/0200Z
D. 16.0N 76.0W D. 17.5N 78.5W
E. 17/1900Z TO 18/0000Z E. 18/0500Z TO 18/1100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT

4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
IS A THREAT
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LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

alorfi

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Assuming you meant the dartboard comment for me and assuming you are as educated in meteorology as you claim to be.................you would know that any storm possibilitiies I bring up on this board are all supported either by models, teleconection, climatology or simple pattern recognition. The purpose of a medium such as this is to discuss possibilities of events. When dealing with paying clients, you can not be as open to low percentage possibilities because of the perception of the exact comment you made. But not here.............Now I've put out long range forecasts on 3 "sluggos this season here..............2 of which materialized (Gabrielle was overdone, but that was my overzealousness with my close in intensification forecasts I posted early in the season along with no CV season.........both thus far correct) The third system became an invest and was briefly forecasted for development by NHC before it got sheared out.....(it happens, but the point is that something was there). So my bottom line is your dartboard comment in reference to my forecasts is not only insulting, but totally incorrect.
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No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

alorfi

Wow. No, the dartboard analogy was not meant for you at all. It was for all the guessing games which serve little purpose and compromise the level of discussion. Your reaction to your mistaken assumption was rather disappointing. For the record, my interest in this forum was piqued largely because of your insights into long-range forecasting and I have learned a lot about tropical systems from your expertise.

I do not think it is distinguished to recite earlier correct forecasts. If you do not recall them, then they were obviously not important to you in the first place.

I do bring a few things to the table. I helped build one of the first private forecasting firms in the entire midwest and did so by consistently providing more useful information to our clients than did the government. Without self-aggrandizing, the truth is that we were very rarely incorrect. Of course, we only had to go 2 to 5 days out with most clients, so that's an entirely different scope of work.