Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 512 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:00 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
A TRAIN COMING THROUGH? looks like some training of rain just along to slightly off our coast. Would be great to have this rain stick around for awhile
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 250 Location: Maiden NC
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 11:01 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Pressures are rising everywhere in the Gulf. Is this storm having a difficult time with the transition? Or is this normal? thanks _________________ GO NOLES
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Nolesjeff wrote:
Pressures are rising everywhere in the Gulf. Is this storm having a difficult time with the transition? Or is this normal? thanks
The system is trying to organize but it is having a hard time because of the influence of the ULL. It's not unusual to see pressure fluctuations with a disorganized system. There are a number of competing mini vortices that are moving around the broad area of low pressure and this creates pressure rises and pressure drops at different recording stations and buoys. You can't have tropical development beneath a cold core upper low unless the upper low transitions to warm core and that takes a long time. There are a few possibilities here. 1.- 93L develops as a sub-tropical system which later can become fully tropical as the ULL moves out.. 2.-93L develops to the east of the upper low and can become fully tropical. 3- the ULL low makes the change to warm core as 93L forms directly below it. I would go with option one at this time. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:09 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT
115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. THE AIRCRAFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS YET THAT THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
(snip)
GULF OF MEXICO...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N84W IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS WNW...INTO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED THIS MORNING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N84W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WWD INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE WATERS OF THE LOOPCURRENT TONIGHT AND FRI. THE LOW MAY FORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR EVEN TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE ON A WNW TRACK REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST ON SAT. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE WRN GULF WATERS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN GULF.
(/snip) _________________ Todd
Weatherman911 Hurricanes Featuring Lous Weather Watch
http://weatherman911.tripod.com
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Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:04 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
snip"SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED THIS MORNING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N84W".
and that's exactly why it looks like crap. No tropical development beneath an ULL. If the ULL moves out to the southwest then the surface low can spin up. Only other alternative is for the ULL to transition to warm core which can be aided by the surface low IF it can build strong convection and maintain it....... but it's rare and takes a number of days. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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