Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:45 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Models are really keying into S. Louisiana now which would mean a quicker (Sat) landfall and not as strong as further West. Tomorrow should tell the tale. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:41 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
System still has issues early this morning. Competing centers are not going to do the trick here if it's headed for LA as it will run out of real estate rather quickly. It's consolidation today or bust. The disturbance in the SW Caribean is looking interesting though......... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:02 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
I see that too. Seems like a bit of the energy from 93L may be breaking away. The satellite looks to me like it has its own slight rotation. Does anyone more experienced think this may become a player? I guess the next 12-24 hours would tell us more to see if it really breaks away or gets re-absorbed into 93L??
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:02 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
000
WTNT35 KNHC 211454
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
forecaster FRANKLIN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Looks like a 50mph New Orleans special.....................Caribbean next to come up.......should be a lopsided system with most of the precip on the Eastern side........Have to watch for interaction with Ingred's (whats left) mid level center coming west.......... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
000
WTNT35 KNHC 211746
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:34 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
capeskywatcher wrote:
I see that too. Seems like a bit of the energy from 93L may be breaking away. The satellite looks to me like it has its own slight rotation. Does anyone more experienced think this may become a player? I guess the next 12-24 hours would tell us more to see if it really breaks away or gets re-absorbed into 93L??
That was part of the ULL which is falling apart. As I mentioned yesterday, the ULL would have to move off to the southwest before 93L could develop. That has happened. So we began with 93L, went to STD 10, and now to TD 10. Next stop, tropical storm. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:04 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Storms making landfall already...............game over _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1469 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Sure is. It was interesting to watch this system and glad it didn't turn into a powerhouse. One good thing about it is we are getting quite a bit of precipitation from it down in Swfla. _________________ Chris
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