Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:25 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
The pro mets on Storm2K think that this potential Bahamas system will be in a sheared environment, and a tropical storm at best. Lou, what do you and SW46TER say?
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
blee wrote:
The pro mets on Storm2K think that this potential Bahamas system will be in a sheared environment, and a tropical storm at best. Lou, what do you and SW46TER say?
Barry
They probably are picking that up from the GFS which weakens then loses the system late in the week. Models don't handle shear very well which makes me skeptical about a shear environment. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:34 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
"Once off the Florida west coast we want this system to boogie on west. Of concern is some models showing it hanging around and or moving sloooowly west."
Gosh, we REALLY need the rainfall though. This could be a very beneficial scenario for us over the next 3 days. Actually, if this is as slow-moving as the NAM has it, we would be in a very deep SE flow maybe into next week. If we don't fill up some of these local reservoirs within the next two weeks, I'm afraid we'll have to go the next 8 months with insufficient levels... a landscaper's nightmare.
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:23 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Very impressive activity moving in our direction from the northeast. It's still way up by Orlando, but growing convection at this hour always gets one's attention.
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:44 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
This should become an Invest at any time now. Convection continues to build and the radar loop hints at rotation. Pressures are falling all along the east coast and bahamas. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 111 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:18 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Sweet Delicious Convection Any chance this system could hang around a couple days (assuming a weak one) Lou ? As Mr. Alorfi previously stated, we sure could use the precipitation. La Nina generally means drier Fl. winters..yes ? Tks. Jim
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 252 Location: Maiden NC
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:44 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
I am thinking Jerry while crossing gulf stream, moving slowly, pulling very hot and muggy air off the state and from the stream. Close proximity to land, I believe will lead nhc to name it as soon as it reaches minimum requirements. _________________ GO NOLES
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:55 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Both intensity models bring 93L to Hurricane strength in the central gulf and tropical storm strength in the eastern gulf.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1600 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
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Any chance this system could hang around a couple days (assuming a weak one) Lou ? As Mr. Alorfi previously stated, we sure could use the precipitation. La Nina generally means drier Fl. winters..yes ? Tks. Jim 
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