Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:03 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Wthrwatcher wrote:
Sweet Delicious Convection Any chance this system could hang around a couple days (assuming a weak one) Lou ? As Mr. Alorfi previously stated, we sure could use the precipitation. La Nina generally means drier Fl. winters..yes ? Tks. Jim
It won't be going anywhere quickly so this could be a major rainfall event. However we DON"T want it sitting just offshore and have it spin up to 'uh oh' status. Let's get the rain and get it out of here before we get in big trouble. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
I would expect a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement from the NHC at any time. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 132 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:00 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Dr Jeff Masters Blog
An area of disturbed weather (labeled "93L" by NHC this afternoon) has become much more organized this afternoon. Animations of long-range radar out of Miami, Florida and satellite loops show that thunderstorm activity off the Florida coast is steadily increasing. A surface circulation has not yet fully formed, but has almost closed off just south of Grand Bahama Island, about 100 miles east of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Winds at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island were blowing at 9 knots out of the east at 9am this morning, but shifted to northerly and now northeasterly, and have increased to 32 knots (37 mph), with gusts to 34 knots (39 mph, tropical storm force). Winds at Freeport on Grand Bahama Island have increased to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.
Water vapor satellite loops show that an upper-level low pressure system has detached from its parent trough over northern Florida. This upper level low is moving southwest, creating more favorable upper-level winds over 93L. Wind shear over 93L has fallen from 30 knots to 20 knots in the past six hours. A tropical or subtropical depression could form before it moves over South Florida tonight or Wednesday morning, but there is likely not enough time for this to happen. Regardless, South Florida and the western Bahamas can expect heavy rains of 3-6 inches from this system. Radar estimated rainfall has been as high as three inches in some spots over the ocean thus far.
The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis all predict that a tropical or subtropical depression will form from 93L once it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. The path such a storm might take is uncertain. A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in place for at least ten days. This is the type of steering pattern we experienced during the Hurricane Season of 2005, and favors westward-moving storms. However, this steering pattern will be complicated by the presence of the upper-level low pressure system moving southwest over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level low will gradually weaken. Depending on the strength and movement of this low, the counterclockwise flow around the low could steer 93L on a northwesterly path towards Louisiana. This is the solution of the latest (12Z) runs of the UKMET, GFS, and GFDL models. The intensity such a storm may reach is also highly uncertain. The SHIPS intensity model brings 93L to Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. The GFDL predicts 93L will hit New Orleans as a strong tropical storm Friday night. The NOGAPS model predicts 93L will eventually dissipate over the southwestern Gulf. All residents along the Gulf of Mexico coast need to consider what actions they might need to take if a hurricane develops in the Gulf over the next few days.
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:36 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
1800Z models have been increased to 25 kts.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN THE AREA AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
OVER PORTION OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Forecaster Avila. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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Any chance this system could hang around a couple days (assuming a weak one) Lou ? As Mr. Alorfi previously stated, we sure could use the precipitation. La Nina generally means drier Fl. winters..yes ? Tks. Jim 
Here's to the rain, then to westward movement, 
before the uh-oh !! 
Tks. Jim
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