Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
The beauty of this puppy is besides the fact it will give you guys a good soaker, because it's in it's embryonic stage, and still baroclinically enhanced... it will not lose much structure over the flat Florida Peninsula. It should emerge over the Gulf around Sarasota and blow up out in the Eastern Gulf by the end of the week. With weak steering, it's unclear exactly where it's heading (though the MIA TCC is as good a bet as any). But depending how far North it gets will determine if it is a LA or TX landfall of a tropical named system. I still have Ingred on the table. High pressure is starting to build over her and either an actual storm or at least the entrainment of her energy will be headed for the Gulf next week..........I think _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:50 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Here's the Ships model shear forecast at 6 hour intervals starting at the current time. Note what happens after 24 hours. Shear plummets to 8 kts and stays low through the remainder of the forecast period.
SHEAR (KTS)
current-23 kts
+6 hrs-26 kts
+12 hrs-17 kts
+18 hrs-15 kts
+24 hrs-20 kts
+30 hrs-8 kts
+36 hrs-5 kts
+42 hrs-9 kts
+48 hrs-7 kts
+54 hrs-3 kts. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Impressive winds. At this point they are mostly gradient induced winds. However take a look at the pressure plot from the same buoy. Now that gets my attention.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?...&uom=E _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Impressive winds. At this point they are mostly gradient induced winds. However take a look at the pressure plot from the same buoy. Now that gets my attention.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?...&uom=E
I did notice that, -12 in the last hour?
Also, I had asked that question on this forum before about gradient. The answer was" Its still TS winds). Also, remember wasnt it Wilma that got her start in that area. She blew up quick. I am still saying batton down the hatches. _________________ GO NOLES
Impressive winds. At this point they are mostly gradient induced winds. However take a look at the pressure plot from the same buoy. Now that gets my attention.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?...&uom=E
I did notice that, -12 in the last hour?
Also, I had asked that question on this forum before about gradient. The answer was" Its still TS winds). Also, remember wasnt it Wilma that got her start in that area. She blew up quick. I am still saying batton down the hatches.
What I meant by the winds being gradient induced was that the low pressure center in the Bahamas is not creating the winds on it's own at this point. However with the pressure drops we are seeing the will change pretty soon.
regarding Wilma......I think you meant Katrina. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 185 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
The cloud pattern is starting to hook just east of the Northern Bahamas. If this pattern continues, this could mean that the system is farther out over water than I originally thought. It will have plenty of time to acquire tropical characteristics and intensify before moving over Florida, or am I just seeing things? What do y'all think?
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