Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:54 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0617 UTC WED SEP 19 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:53 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Note the location of expected development.
WTNT01 KNGU 191200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3MB DECREASE IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN
BEFORE BEGINING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201200Z. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:39 am Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
The key words are "move into or redevelop over the eastern gulf.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN GULF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM.
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 252 Location: Maiden NC
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
I noticed that earlier today, so who is the player Southwest coast or the circulation off melbourne?> Southwest coast is not a good thing for the gulf states. Where ever this ends up will have time to develop. Scary _________________ GO NOLES
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:10 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Nolesjeff wrote:
I noticed that earlier today, so who is the player Southwest coast or the circulation off melbourne?> Southwest coast is not a good thing for the gulf states. Where ever this ends up will have time to develop. Scary
Definitely the SW coast. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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Southwest coast or the circulation off melbourne?> Southwest coast is not a good thing for the gulf states. Where ever this ends up will have time to develop. Scary
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