Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:27 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
It seems like the low off W Palm Beach has jumped under the upper low off Sarasota. While I did say this would exit into the Gulf exactly where it is now, I did not see it happening this way. What this means to me is that the system being vertically aligned with the cold upper low, it will take longer to become tropical. This also increases the threat over towards Houston while lessens it for New Orleans. But it will be a slow mover and these things as we know....have a mind of their own, so nobody is out of the woods yet. Ingrid is looking better today, shear down around 10 kts and dropping..........She's weak, so like I opined last week, the models constantly recurving her from day 1 may continue to be out to lunch until it is apparent to a Janitor in Jacksonville that this thing is coming West. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 524 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:38 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Nothing much happening locally as is the case when we have nearby tropical items. Even the prospects for rain seem to be going down. Thoughts? Once it gets going in the Gulf, will that increase or decrease our rain chances? I think lessens the chance.
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:56 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
bob wrote:
Nothing much happening locally as is the case when we have nearby tropical items. Even the prospects for rain seem to be going down. Thoughts? Once it gets going in the Gulf, will that increase or decrease our rain chances? I think lessens the chance.
bob
Right now you have competing centers, the original one I believe just moved inland near Melbourne and the new one which probably developed from an energy transfer off Sarasota. When the Gulf low takes over it will begin to wrap the original precip over N. FL back towards the center and eventually you should get into a squally pattern. It will really be interesting to see how this ramps up as it craws along the loop current (after it transitions tropical) _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:57 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
I disagree Bob. In fact, I see our rain liklihood improving the further west the system progresses as the deep SE flow will provide ample fuel for our diurnal convection pattern. Thursday should be just showery, but by Friday and Saturday, we should see some very impressive late afternoon convective activity.
But yes, those predicting heavy rainfall for us while we were on the drier western side of the system missed badly.
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:24 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
The NHC continues to hold on to the Melbourne low as the dominant feature. I thought they would switch to the coastal low off our coastline for this model run. Regarding rain.....it's coming and we should get quite a bit. Also have to watch for severe weather in the form of tornadoes. yeah....those things again. sheesh!
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0017 UTC THU SEP 20 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 524 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:41 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
If the low off of our coast wins out, as on the latest satellite shows, and it moves Ne towards New Oeleans, woundn't that put us on the SE quadrant and lessen any impact on our area? And would not our winds be out of r SW further limiting our chances for rain? (maybe a slight increase in possible AM activity but overall a decrease in POP?
bob
frm the nhc 10:30pm update: SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE STILL FALLING SHARPLY AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:46 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Yes, initially we will see a SW to S flow and that should provide the showery weather tomorrow at just about any hour. But by Friday, the developing low will be far enough away that we are out of its circulation and the flow will become straight SE as it fills in behind it. I think our best chance for substantial rainfall will come during this regime whereby the full thickness moisture will bang up against a seabreeze that is pinned pretty much west of I-75. That's a great scenario for diurnal convective activity and I definitely agree that severe weather is possible as well on Friday and Saturday.
On a side note, I was really surprised to see virtually all models taking this thing into Louisiana. I've been thinking much further west (into the Port Arthur area) for the past two days.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WEAK SHORT-LIVED
TORNADOES TODAY. THE THREAT FOR WEAK TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE NEAR
THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES AWAY.
SMALL TORNADOES CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND
POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THE AREA MOST AT RISK WILL BE FROM BONITA
BEACH TO JOHNS PASS...WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TURN ONSHORE.
TO THE NORTH...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE TODAY.
A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN
PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.
TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.
IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.
...MARINE HAZARDS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF
WATERSPOUTS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THIS MORNING MAY
ABATE BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT.
FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT ON FRIDAY AS SOME
DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST BY SATURDAY.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY OVER THE WEEKEND. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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