TD 13/ LORENZO

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 7:30 am Post subject: TD 13/ LORENZO

Looks a little agitated down there this morning. I think high pressure is supposed to move in over the area after the Low/ULL moves out. If anything were to develop, could head on up into the Gulf also. Could be someth'in, could be nuth'in. scratch

In the meantime, bring on that local precipitation Exclamation

bob · Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:13 am Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

SW Caribbean flaring up. This was a suspect area for development a few days ago but dropped off NHC radars. Maybe Lou will be highlighting it as a 4th area of interest soon. What are conditions down there? Ripe or rotten!

bob
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Wthrwatcher · Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:45 am Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

There is very warm water down there, very low shear, and light N. steering winds. There is also a ULL coming in from the E/NE (by old Ingrid). I do not know if the ULL could be good or bad, but if it goes W/NW into the Gulf, it may help draw whatever is down there (if anything), into the Gulf. Hopefully Lou can get more technical, if there is even anything to worry about . At least it's raining here right now, Very Happy

and Go Canes !! Very Happy

Nolesjeff · Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:19 am Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 11:13 am Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

The NAM is bringing a system out of the Carib and over the Yucatan, while the CMC and GFS also bring a system north from the Carib and through the Yucatan Channel. The Southwest Carib always fires up large convective bursts that fall apart some hours later. Lets see what it looks like about 8 hours from now. That should tell us if we have another player on the field. Very Happy

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Nolesjeff · Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:22 am Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?...&uom=E

Check out this Buoy in the area? Do these look correct?
29.63 early this am 1003mb
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ccstorms · Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 6:39 am Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

ok, now we have a player. more later.
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LOU
Cape Coral.
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Manuel · Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 6:40 am Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

I would pay more attention to this one than the one in the Gulf. The gfs model, which I think is pretty reliable (as a rough draft of what's going to happen), brings this system through Yucatan and into the West-Central Gulf in 3 days. This system is distinctly tropical and has a lot more potential for development.

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO

I'm not impressed with the convection so I'm going to wait to see what it looks like in the morning. The GFS is still forecasting development.
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LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: TD 13/ LORENZO