Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:04 pm Post subject: Re: KAREN
Manuel, I moved your post here to help eliminate confustion since we have two topics running.
Manuel wrote:
TROPICS THAT IS! THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 7 NORTH, BUT FAR, FAR TO THE EAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT BUT TAKES IT NORTH AFTER A FEW DAYS, BUT I THINK THESE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT VERY RELIABLE IN THE DEEP TROPICS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. IS IT AN INVEST YET?
Here's an example of a great low-latitude "Cape Verde" storm forming about this time of year (Flora:1963, from Wikipedia):
A disturbance in the Intertropical Convergence Zone organized into a tropical depression on September 26 while located about 755 miles (1220 km) southwest of the island of Fogo in the Cape Verde Islands. Upon forming, the depression had a poorly-organized circulation with banding features to its north and east. The depression moved west-northwestward, and the system failed to organize significantly by a day after developing. On September 27, the banding features dissipated, though the area of convection around the center increased. Satellite imagery was unavailable until September 30, during which there were not sufficient ship reports to indicate the presence of a low-level circulation. The depression continued west-northwestward, and it is estimated it intensified into Tropical Storm Flora on September 29 while located about 560 miles (900 km) east-southeast of Trinidad, or about 350 miles (570 km) north of Cayenne, French Guiana.
Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:18 pm Post subject: Re: East Atlantic
Wthrwatcher wrote:
Pretty healthy spinning blob S. of the Cape Verde Is. Is it too late in the year for this area to be a threat to us
It's hard for anything forming that far east this late in the season to make it all the way across. Hard, but not impossible. Should anything form from this disturbance (and it looks good) we will still be following it in October. It's not yet an Invest but if it keeps cooking it will be one pretty soon. I must say it's really healthy looking for a wave that has not even passed the CVI yet. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Last edited by ccstorms on Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: East Atlantic
ccstorms wrote:
Wthrwatcher wrote:
Pretty healthy spinning blob S. of the Cape Verde Is. Is it too late in the year for this area to be a threat to us
It's hard for anything forming that far east this late in the season to make it all the way across. Hard, but not impossible. Should anything form from this disturbance (and it looks good) we will still be following it in October. It's not yet an Invest but if it keeps cooking it will one be pretty soon. I must say it's really healthy looking for a wave that has not even passed the CVI yet.
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 263 Location: Cape Coral FL
Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: KAREN
It does, but what a road it has to travel. Hopefully it is nothing or it is a fish storms. Two years without significant tropical activity should stop the bloodshed from the insurance companies. I know they wount drop rates but maybe they will be status quo for a year. _________________ GO NOLES
Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:32 pm Post subject: Re: KAREN
Nolesjeff wrote:
It does, but what a road it has to travel. Hopefully it is nothing or it is a fish storms. Two years without significant tropical activity should stop the bloodshed from the insurance companies. I know they wount drop rates but maybe they will be status quo for a year.
You are FAR from done with homegrown systems threatening Florida this year.................. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 7:19 am Post subject: Re: KAREN
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0731 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 7:21 am Post subject: Re: KAREN
from 5:30 am TWO.
"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH."
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