Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 7:25 am Post subject: Re: Invest 97L
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0807 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:49 am Post subject: Re: Invest 97L
Models bring it near Jamaica as a Cat 1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1322 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 316 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L
This one look like a mess on both the visible and ir, however, it may be reorganizing farther south. Again, time will tell. It's also interesting to note that it's following the same track pattern of Dean and Felix.
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 23 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-121
SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 263 Location: Cape Coral FL
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 2:17 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L
ccstorms wrote:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 23 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-121
SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 25/1200Z.
Looking better and better, this one has a not so good track either. Wish it would just go away. We have 9 days, so hopefully shear will attack soon. _________________ GO NOLES
Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 316 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L
I still say the system needs to establish itself better. There are indications that the center of circulation will soon shift farther south. This is good for the system, as it would allow it to escape the apparent future scourge of southwesterly shear, that can be seen occuring over the Windward Islands.
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1841 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
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