Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:18 am Post subject: Re: Vorticity Center South of Miami Now Invest 98L.
Yep, the CMC goes hog wild as usual but it's something to watch as it could be a huge rainmaker for south Florida if it comes together as a surface low. Keep an eye on it Manuel, this is your baby. _________________ LOU
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Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 8:01 am Post subject: Re: Vorticity Center South of Miami Now Invest 98L.
The CMC, Nogaps, GFS, and UKMET, all show a developing surface low in the florida straits or near key west. This could get interesting. _________________ LOU
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Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 10:55 am Post subject: Re: Vorticity Center South of Miami Now Invest 98L.
Lou, doesn't there appear to be too much shear in that area? Obviously, it piques a Floridian's curiousity given its location, but I'm seeing at least 3 days of shear attacking this. If it moves NE, then it should get more favorable conditions for development, but by then it would be off the SE Florida coast. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 316 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:32 pm Post subject: Re: Vorticity Center South of Miami Now Invest 98L.
Taking the cue from ccstorms, don't see anthing major popping up from this one. It's mainly an upper level system. It will probably absorb the system that's near Puerto Rico right now. In 7-8 days, we'll probably be looking south of Cuba (climatology). The system near Puerto Rico might energize the western Caribbean, which is always a fertile breeding ground, especially in early October.
Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:33 pm Post subject: Re: Vorticity Center South of Miami Now Invest 98L.
alorfi wrote:
Lou, doesn't there appear to be too much shear in that area? Obviously, it piques a Floridian's curiousity given its location, but I'm seeing at least 3 days of shear attacking this. If it moves NE, then it should get more favorable conditions for development, but by then it would be off the SE Florida coast. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Sorry for the delay in responding. When at work I only have very limited time to post. Now that I'm home I can answer you question in detail. Right now the highest shear is more towards the central gulf and this disturbance is sitting in a good spot to avoid hostile conditions. This whole set-up with a trough and upper low is a very complex situation. As I mentioned earlier the models are forecasting a surface low to form in the vicinity of the Florida straits to near the Key West area. This location is in a low shear environment and is on the edge of a high vorticity area which extends south over Cuba. Now here's the dilemma. The ECMWF is forecasting a Hurricane to come north through the Yucatan Channel on Monday. The question is where does this Hurricane come from? The ECMWF doesn't show where it comes from.....it just appears So that leads me to believe that the ECMWF is flat out wrong or it's spinning up a Hurricane from the disturbance that is now in the Florida Straits and is adding the energy coming in later this week from Invest 97L which weakened last night over the Windward Islands. Since the models show this LOW to be meandering around Florida for most of the week I believe the merging idea may be a basis for concern. Now for the fly in the ointment so to speak. We have 94L spinning up in the Bay Of Campeche and it will also be around all week. This puts two competing systems in close proximity and they both can survive if neither becomes very big. If 94L becomes a strong TC it will mean that the Florida Straits system won't intensify beyond a weak surface low. But remember that both will be hanging around most of the week and should 94L move inland into Mexico that would open the door for the development of the Florida system. So I say again....what does the ECMWF 'think' will happen. I think the ECMWF is forecasting the Campeche low to exit stage left and consolidates the Florida low and the remains of 97L and develops a TC either near the Yucatan Channel or in the southeast gulf around Oct 1. _________________ LOU
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Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: Vorticity Center South of Miami Now Invest 98L.
Thanks, Lou. I do strongly agree that 94L is heading west for a margarita and will not be much of a player for our Florida Straits system. I guess my confusion is that I DO see considerable shear for this thing, at least for a few more days. You seem to be leaning toward it "outlasting" the shear conditions... or it sounds like you see things never becoming hostile in the first place?
I really shy away from model outputs in situations such as these because they are non-sensical when they don't even initiate correctly. What I mean is, in situations where one or models just doesn't make any sense, we have to disregard it for the time being. I think we will know a LOT more in 24 hours.
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don't see anthing major popping up from this one. It's mainly an upper level system. It will probably absorb the system that's near Puerto Rico right now. In 7-8 days, we'll probably be looking south of Cuba (climatology). The system near Puerto Rico might energize the western Caribbean, which is always a fertile breeding ground, especially in early October.
So that leads me to believe that the ECMWF is flat out wrong or it's spinning up a Hurricane from the disturbance that is now in the Florida Straits and is adding the energy coming in later this week from Invest 97L which weakened last night over the Windward Islands. Since the models show this LOW to be meandering around Florida for most of the week I believe the merging idea may be a basis for concern. Now for the fly in the ointment so to speak. We have 94L spinning up in the Bay Of Campeche and it will also be around all week. This puts two competing systems in close proximity and they both can survive if neither becomes very big. If 94L becomes a strong TC it will mean that the Florida Straits system won't intensify beyond a weak surface low. But remember that both will be hanging around most of the week and should 94L move inland into Mexico that would open the door for the development of the Florida system. So I say again....what does the ECMWF 'think' will happen. I think the ECMWF is forecasting the Campeche low to exit stage left and consolidates the Florida low and the remains of 97L and develops a TC either near the Yucatan Channel or in the southeast gulf around Oct 1.
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