Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 8:01 am Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
Longitudinal research does reveal that storms rarely affect the Texas and Louisiana coast in October... except during periods when the upper-level winds are abated... conditions we see when the Pacific is cooler. During those years, tropical development in the Gulf (and more frequently, the Caribbean) seem to extend the summertime pattern of westward and northward projections because the upper winds are much slower than normal. We are seeing a rather strong La Nina pattern right now and that is much of the basis for my train of thought. Hovmoller-based outputs support this idea as well.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC WED OCT 3 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 04/1445Z
D. 25.0N 74.0W
E. 04/1730Z TO 2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 73
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 05/0200Z
D. 25.0N 75.0W
E. 05/0500Z TO 0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT
05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:47 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY.
FORECASTER RHOME. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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This one looks like it could get very interesting. Tks. for the update NolesJeff. Nice win over Bama 
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