Next area of concern now Invest 92L.

capeskywatcher

CC, I think it's interesting that you compare this to an el nino pattern. I've noticed strictly by observation that the last two winter seasons, the long range forecasters got it wrong and we had the opposite conditions from what was predicted. I mean last year they called for an el nino winter and we got a very dry, warm winter (typical la nina conditions for here). The year before we got the cool, damp conditions when they called for warm, dry conditions.

Last I read, forecasters (NOAA seaonal forecast discussion) said we'd have La Nina conditions (a warm, dry winter this coming season.) I hope the conditions we're seeing now is an indicator of a cool, damp winter el nino type season. As you know, we can use any help we can get in measurable rainfall. I live on fresh water and have never seen the lake and canals here so low. It's down feet, not inches. The city may be pumping for irrigation, but I'm sure some of it is due to lack of rainfall. This summer has not only produced less storms here but the rain seems to be lighter in many cases when it does rain.

Anyway, I hope we do get some rainfall from this invest without the wind.

ccstorms

capeskywatcher, I used the El Nino comment just to illustrate how hostile the conditions have been in the tropical Atlantic basin. However I do understand what you are saying and agree. Very Happy

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

Regarding the onset of the dry season.....it will begin when we have a series of cold fronts that reach into the northwest Caribbean. It doesn't matter what the date is on the calendar and don't be fooled by a single front. The cooler dry air will feel real good but unless the fronts come in somewhat of a rapid fire sequence we will warm right back up as the flow returns to the southeast and brings in the tropical warm moist air. After about three cold fronts we can say with some confidence that the rainy season is over. From all indications we may have to wait until November which could be a blessing as we need all the extra time we can get to raise the rainfall totals. Very Happy

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

Check out the rotation on the radar approaching Cuba.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

alorfi

A single cold front can effectively end "rainy season" as happened following Wilma in 2005. The idea of multiple fronts being required is a fallacy... we just generally achieve the removal of low and mid-level moisture be that time and the seabreeze dies when sea and surface temperatures are no longer discrepant. This season's rainy season has about 8 to 10 days left before the advection of cooler temperatures snuff out the seabreezes. That's not to be said we couldn't get lucky and have a tropical system approach from the southeast (easterly progressing storms are extremely unlikely this year), but our summertime pattern of diurnal convective activity should be completely finished by the 15th of this month.