Next area of concern now Invest 92L.

ccstorms · Last edited by ccstorms on Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

The large area of disturbed weather east of Florida is beginning to really impress me and to some degree it's also impressing the models. The globals are jumping on this area and show it moving to the west and west southwest with some taking it through the Florida Straits while others have it moving more WSW to near the Florida Straits, across Cuba, and into the NW Caribbean followed by a NW turn near the Yucatan. Looking at the massive convective bursts that are taking place today I would expect this area to become Invest 91L and it will have a much more favorable environment for development.

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This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms

This is the 18Z run of the GFS. Watch the area east of Florida and don't yell at me, yell at the model. Very Happy

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod...loop.shtml
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

There looks to be 3 development opportunities over the next 10-14 days. First.......your aforementioned system which will move West across the Gulf this week and pose a problem for TX. The second comes into the Gulf around the 10th and probably gets pulled out and up the East Coast by a trof coming through the Tennesee Valley. It is after that system and the trof lift out, followed by a major ridge off the East Coast ......that the playing field will be ripe for a major storm to develop in the NW Caribean /Gulf.. Between the warm water close in this year and a moderate La Nina pattern, October should be the most active month of the tropical season (especially homegrown). Anyone here who thinks the threat of SW Florida being impacted from a Gulf system is not a viable option this month is only kidding themselves.
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No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

ccstorms

Met232TV

Just look at how much future 91L has consolidated in just the past 8 hours.
Some slight cyclonic turning can now be seen on the visible loop.

This thing is really getting its act together.

ccstorms

Wthrwatcher

I was hoping this area would organize into a low and follow the ULL across, giving us much needed rain. Smile

An organizing low or garden variety depression could give us a good soaking before Mr. Dry Season comes to town. Of course..hurricanes are not welcome !

Sorry, could not resist. Laughing

alorfi

Shear will obviously decrease in the Atlantic (and Gulf) with the La Nina conditions out west (in the Pacific), but the primary threat for dangerous cyclones is still the north and west Gulf Coast and not SW Florida. Our primary "threat" still comes from our east and southeast and I agree that the next 10 to 14 days are very interesting given the dramatic decrease in upper-level winds after the 7th of this month. After that... not so much.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Wthrwatcher

Big convection this AM . Maybe Invest later this morning ??