Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 132 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2007
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 29N71W TO OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 22N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS A LARGE AREA E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-28N W OF
61W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 8:59 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
NHC has it at 26.1N- 73W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0018 UTC THU OCT 4 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 3:33 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
The Shear Monster has had control over the whole Atlantic basin for most of the season. The basin is contaminated by upper level lows, TUTTS, and troughs. This looks more like a El Nino basin instead of a La Nina basin. 92L is a complete mess with mini vortices devoid of convection wandering about aimlessly like Chris when awakened at 2 AM to feed the baby. (thought that made a good analogy)
After looking at the latest maps, charts, satellite pics, model runs, and talking it over with the Woolly Caterpillar, checking which side of the Palm tree has moss growing on it, and looking at the Playboy calendar, I expect 92L to get it's act together when it reaches the northwest Caribbean, and that's if it doesn't slip through the Florida Straits which some of the models are forecasting. whew...long sentence. Should any English teachers stumble upon this post please accept my condolences and apologies for causing you pain and anguish.
Ok, back to 92L. Timing is going to be real important as to the expected movement of 92L once it comes out of the northwest Caribbean. A faster movement would mean that 92L would cross the Yucatan and move southwest to Mexico due to the location of a strong high pressure cell to the north. A slower movement would bring 92L north out of the Caribbean as it would feel the pull of a strong upper trough that should be north of the Gulf of Mexico next week. The slower solution would put the north and east gulf states in danger as the track would be trending northeast.
As for intensity......I have no clue. Too many variables. SST's are never a problem in the NW Caribbean but just how much of a land interaction track by 92L will be a key factor. Hopefully if this does develop and does come north out of the Caribbean, the Shear Monster will make another appearance. Best outcome........nothing develops at all. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1540 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
ccstorms wrote:
92L is a complete mess with mini vortices devoid of convection wandering about aimlessly like Chris when awakened at 2 AM to feed the baby. (thought that made a good analogy)
No doubt about that. It takes a few minutes to catch my bearings and then once I figure out what's going on I'm awake and can't get back to sleep.
As far as the storm, I really hope this produces some nice precipitation for a few days. We are still way below average and need the rain really bad before the season is done. I just hope it doesn't turn into a monster and creeps in our backyards with high power winds. I'd hate to have no power, no a/c and a hungry child. Yikes. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 524 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
Chris
No worries mon . Check out the latest satellite maps. Nothing coming our way. Maybe an afternoon shower or two over the next day or so, then POP falls off. Dry season pattern then starts to set in. :damn:
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 10:44 pm Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
Gotta' disagree about the onset of the rainy season, Bob. I still see 92L progressing in a westerly fashion and regardless of its strength, it should be enough of a circulation to pull another swath of moisture in its wake. I see our scattered diurnal pattern continuing all the way up to around the 15th. Now, a given location obviously won't get nailed each and every day, but at least our summertime afternoon and evening convection pattern should be continued past the normal cutoff dates. Just my opinion.
Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 111 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:02 am Post subject: Re: Next area of concern now Invest 92L.
Yah Mon..We bow down to "Da Shear Monster " Gators and Tigers and Shear..oh MY Seems to be a real mess out there alrighty. At least we can look foward to a "little" precipitation and some sports this weekend.
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No doubt about that. It takes a few minutes to catch my bearings and then once I figure out what's going on I'm awake and can't get back to sleep. 
. Check out the latest satellite maps. Nothing coming our way. Maybe an afternoon shower or two over the next day or so, then POP falls off. Dry season pattern then starts to set in. :damn:
" Gators and Tigers and Shear..oh MY 
Seems to be a real mess out there alrighty. At least we can look foward to a "little" precipitation and some sports this weekend. 
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