Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:21 am Post subject: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 060941
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Last edited by ccstorms on Sat Oct 06, 2007 1:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 10:31 am Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 232 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
If this area is going to "pop", it should probably begin to come together today I would expect. Looks like it is getting close..but . So we wait and we shall see Pretty breezy out there in the yard I must say.
Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:04 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SAT OCT 6 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:24 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 06 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-134
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01LLA INVEST
C. 07/1430Z
D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO TEAL 71
A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02LLA CYCLONE
C. 08/0200Z
D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 08/0530Z TO 08/1030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 4:17 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
Pressure down to 1005 MB.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC SUN OCT 7 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 316 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
Here's my challenge to the "mainstream thinking" on this disturbance.
1.) The most viable circulation actually broke off from 92L 2-3 days ago. It originated near 27N and 73W and then quickly as a "chicken with it's head cut off" low moved sw and crossed the northern Cuban coastline last night. Therefore, the disturbance should be called 92L.
2.) The center is actually located near 21.1N and 84.2W.
3.) It will eventually head N and NE, influenced by the cutoff low to from over the eastern US. I'm a lot less sure about this one.
Just thinking outside the box for healthy debate.
Alorfi, I generally agree with your argument about the weather service not serving the public interest. It's part of the governmental/press system that generally does likewise. Part of the dumbing down process in all fields. A doctor just told me that by next year, they would not be allowed to keep good old fashioned paper files of patients--only computerized. This will be a big expense/privacy issue. I wish I could be more optimistic about this.
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