Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:57 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
alorfi wrote:
There is a ton of shear in the northern Gulf and similar conditions seem to be spreading toward the Yucatan. I think 94L merits very little attention from this point forward.
What matters is what the shear intensity and direction will be 5 days from now. The current shear means nothing and the shear values through this weekend also mean nothing. The wave in the eastern Carib will be arriving in the western Carib late this weekend. The trough that's currently draped across Jamaica, Cuba, and northeast into the Bahamas will send small impulses northeast but the main moisture area and energy south of Jamaica will still be there when the east Carib wave arrives. Watch for a trough split with the southern portion becoming it's own entity and the TC Genesis spark coming from the east Carib wave. I would not be surprised to see the east Carib wave begin to develop before it reaches the trough in the western Carib. This is a VERY common occurrence in October and does merit attention regardless of current and short term shear conditions which are in fact not even in the development area. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 232 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
I think Wilma spawned from a similar situation a few years back. Certainly not trying to compare, but as Lou said, this developing sequence is very common for October, and a Caribbean Cane can still happen. Yah Mon
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:03 pm Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
I agree, Bob. The current shear is VERY relevent because it is destroying the waning circulation from 94L. Yes, shear will be reduced in the SW Gulf in 5 days, but by then 94L will be gone. Good idea on the new thread.
Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:30 am Post subject: Re: Northwest Caribbean Now Invest 94L.
The players will be the remnant circulation of 94L which is over Guatemala and is firing up convection near Belize, the southern portion of the trough near Jamaica, and the tropical wave currently approaching the central Caribbean. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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