Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:43 pm Post subject: Possible Carib development now Invest 98L.
Ok, started a new thread. Here's the latest TAFB/NHC discussion for the Carib. Note the existance of the "old" low over Guatemala which is former 94L and a new low near Belize.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEW 1004 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
19N87W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN OLD 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM
THE TWO LOWS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND CONTINUES TO THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEYOND 22N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 84W-87W.
ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND
JAMAICA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 74W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N74W.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE FEATURES. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Last edited by ccstorms on Sun Oct 14, 2007 8:05 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Possible Carib development now Invest 98L.
352
ABNT20 KNHC 132127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF
ROATAN. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
YUCATAN IN A DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 8:10 am Post subject: Re: Possible Carib development now Invest 98L.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Possible Carib development now Invest 98L.
Lou,
Is the area of disturbed weather in the NW Carib the "sleeping giant" as referred by Dr. Masters? It has been lingering around for quite some time and I can almost bet the Yucatan is waterlogged from all the precipitation they've had. I'm just really curious why all these systems seem to be staying waaaay south. It's not a bad thing but last year we had the almost extreme opposite. They were all headed for Greenland and hanging out with the fish. _________________ Chris
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Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 8:56 am Post subject: Re: Possible Carib development now Invest 98L.
chris wrote:
Lou,
Is the area of disturbed weather in the NW Carib the "sleeping giant" as referred by Dr. Masters? It has been lingering around for quite some time and I can almost bet the Yucatan is waterlogged from all the precipitation they've had. I'm just really curious why all these systems seem to be staying waaaay south. It's not a bad thing but last year we had the almost extreme opposite. They were all headed for Greenland and hanging out with the fish.
I don't know what Dr. Masters said but this is the same area (former 94L, trough, and wave) that I have been talking about since wednesday. The southern tracks this season are do to the alignment of the ridge and the formation areas being south of 20N. As the global models come online we should see a northward shift in the track of 98L. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:02 am Post subject: Re: Possible Carib development now Invest 98L.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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