Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 10:14 am Post subject: Re: Invest 99L-Western Gulf
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1455 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 10:24 am Post subject: Re: Invest 99L-Western Gulf
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND BELIZE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED... HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TOMORROW.
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:15 am Post subject: Re: Invest 99L-Western Gulf
The 12Z GFS wants to split 99L with one piece heading north into the Gulf towards the Panhandle and the other piece heading into the Bay of Campeche and towards Texas. At the same time the GFS also spins up a low near the Florida Straits that moves up the east coast of Florida. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 2:49 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 99L-Western Gulf
This is a very strange season....again. Each time we have a chance to get some rainfall from a tropical disturbance it doesn't work out. I was hoping for 99L to move north through the Yucatan Channel but it went across the Yucatan instead. All we need is one lousy depression and we can't get it. 99L is now in the Bay of Campeche heading northwest and will turn north and finally northeast but well north of southwest Florida. 98L went 4 degrees further south than I had hoped and is not a factor as it's northern portion arrived near the Yucatan one day too late to team up with 99L. The only way we are going to get through the coming dry season without a very serious water shortage is to get a depression that moves right over us. I'm almost at the point of hoping for a named storm but I think we would be better off without one as a named storm could become something much stronger and we sure don't want that. Something needs to happen quickly as we are running out of time from any help coming from the tropics.
Here's the latest model track run for 99L.
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 6:04 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 99L-Western Gulf
Yes, October is going as I surmised... given ocean temperatures across our hemisphere, our biggest threat this month is from the Caribbean and not the Gulf. Hovmoller trends really had this handled very well. However, everything seems to be "backed up" timewise and I would not at all be surprised to see something in the SE Gulf spin up just after Halloween and that would have a much greater liklihood of a NNE trajectory that could cause concern (with beneficial rains) to SW Florida.
On a somewhat positive note, we really have a decent shot at summerlike convective action again this week. NWS has 40 POPs going, but I like even better chances along the coast Wednesday thru Friday as a weak seabreeze will get pinned there. Generally the sea breeze is not much of a factor this late in October, but some moist (PWATs over 2 inches!) and very warm air (heat indices should reach the upper 90s for three consecutive days starting tomorrow) and a much lighter SE wind should allow for diurnal convection to pile up generally west of I-75 with the best chances down in Collier.
This, of course, will not produce the kind of rainfall we desperately need. Lou is very correct in his assertion that we are facing very serious water shortages next spring unless we can catch a break from a slow-moving tropical system. One of my stations is located at Bobcat Trail in North Port and we've actually received less rainfall there (17.77 inches) this year than Chris' bird's nest-infested gauge. Sarasota county is talking about going to bi-weekly watering and this would mean the destruction of most St. Augustine lawns. But I digress again...
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 771 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:50 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 99L-Western Gulf
Can you believe only 22" of rain in SW Cape Coral!?
I remember a 10" rainfall in 24 hrs. in June maybe 15 yrs ago!
Talked to a City of Cape Coral Water Dept employee today... He said there is no water from the surface down to 58'.... the lowest ever entering the dry season. Canal system in the north Cape at record low levels. This is a main source of our irrigation "potty" water.
So it better rain soon or look out for serious water restrictions this winter.
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 263 Location: Cape Coral FL
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Invest 99L-Western Gulf
I spent the weekend in Charlotte NC. They cannot water at all. Their lakes looked like The Big O, docks sitting on the ground. Seems its like this all over the southeast. _________________ GO NOLES
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