Joined: Jul 19, 2007 Posts: 216 Location: Tampa FL
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
I am no expert in the field of Tropical Weather. What does all of this entail for us on the West Coast of the Penninsula. Is this a simalar patter to the year when Florida was nailed by 3 Hurricanes in such a short period of time ?
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
CONVECTIVEMIKE wrote:
I am no expert in the field of Tropical Weather. What does all of this entail for us on the West Coast of the Penninsula. Is this a simalar patter to the year when Florida was nailed by 3 Hurricanes in such a short period of time ?
That would be 2004 when Charley, Francis, Ivan, and Jeanne made Florida Landfalls. The good news is that both 2004 and the record season of 2005 are not analog years being used in Dr. Grays forecast. Forecasting landfall locations months or even weeks in advance can't be done. The important thing to watch for is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. Last year we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when". _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 2:51 pm Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
1,018 members. Those who posted their predictions for the 2008 Hurricane season.....4. The lack of participation is quite sad. _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Joined: Aug 16, 2006 Posts: 70 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:35 pm Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
Lots of us amateurs sitting out here lurking I guess - just clueless
But FOUR guesstimators isn't quite as sad as how many typically donate to support the site ... 97 folks on line right now but only TWO contributors so far this month ...
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 396 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
Even as Dr Gray has quit predicting storms for the upcoming season shows the pure nonsense in trying to predict the upcoming hurricane season. What will be will be. To guess or opionate is utterly useless. To "play the game" with our personal predictions is fruitless and meaningless. That being said, I look forward to our predictions and follies as the 2008 season approaches.
bob _________________ Sit back, relax and watch the show!
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