Interesting synoptics for Sunday

alorfi · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 1:30 am Post subject: Interesting synoptics for Sunday

We are seeing a weather pattern more reminscent of summer this week. The strong Bermuda high will now rotate a stiff ESE wind on Sunday. Temperatures in the mid-80s over the cooler Gulf waters should generate an equally vigorous seabreeze in the afternoon and this will collide with the prevailing flow over the spine of the peninsula just as it does so often during our rainy season. Of course, with dewpoints only in the low-60s and PWATs only around 1.2 tomorrow, convection should be limited, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop to our east and slowly migrate toward the west coast later in the afternoon.

Temperatures should fall back into the upper-70s by mid-afternoon, so I'm not sure any convection will live long enough to make it to the coast (enter Bob's heat island theory here), but it should be interesting to see if this strong collision will be enough to generate convective activity in this minimally humid air. If so, it will be the earliest in the year that I've seen storms move from east to west.

bob

Alorfi said:
Temperatures should fall back into the upper-70s by mid-afternoon, so I'm not sure any convection will live long enough to make it to the coast (enter Bob's heat island theory here), but it should be interesting to see if this strong collision will be enough to generate convective activity in this minimally humid air. If so, it will be the earliest in the year that I've seen storms move from east to west.

As long as Florida remains above sea level there will be the collisions of the air masses! Very Happy

The last couple of years has seen a weakening of the east winds that shove the storms our way. And, of course, when they do get here, they are diverted around Cape Coral by the Heat Island that surrounds our city Laughing

As far as today's weather goes: Late season "backdoor cold front and the stronger winds associated with it will remain in southern Georgia maybe into north central Florida. No convection down here. And with April being one of our dryest months if not the dryest, it should be awhile (late May?)before the 1st signs of our summer pattern kicks in. That's not to say there won't be several days between now and then where we will have some storms. But then again, it won't rain here in the Desert SW due to afore mentioned Heat Island Effect or HIE. Wink

Should be a great day to be out on a boat!

bob
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alorfi

Bob, what I am saying is that our present synoptics today are the perfect exegesis of the prevalent summertime pattern. The dying occluded front to our northeast has nothing to do with what I am talking about, but the giant Bermuda high certainly does because it is rotating a very persistent ESE wind flow which will interact with the west coast seabreeze.

Now, I do preface all this by acknowledging that we have insufficiently moist air in place, so any convection generated by these seabreeze interactions should be quite minor and should die out quickly as they move into the maritime air near the coast. But the actual summertime dynamics are in place, sans the heat and humidity, so the east-to-west shower activity will remain limited.

bob

I am also not a meterologist! Heck, I don't even know if I can spell it correctly! But I do enjoy weather watching and being part of these discussions even if my expressions are not well grounded in the more technical aspects. Smile

So, an early developed Bermuda High we have our normal east to west flow in place. Add higher temps and humidity and viola! the rainy season. And if the high is strong enough more afternoon storms will make their way to our coast. And the path of Atlantic hurricanes are dictated by location, strength and ridging of the high in whatever direction. Correct?

bob
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Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!

alorfi

I don't think the present Bermuda high is indicative of anything that will happen during the summer, but if we had the heat and humidity of June with the synoptic features we have today... it would be a very stormy afternoon (except for the SW Cape, of course).

As I mentioned in the other post, I could not fathom a guess about hurricane frequency let alone landfall probabilities. To be honest, I don't think anyone can at this point.

bob

Towering cumulus cloud to our SE at sunset. Radar shows rain over central Collier County and Naples. Good close call prediction from alorfi from very early today.

bob
_________________
Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!

alorfi

Thanks Bob... nice thunderstorm moving westwardly through Charlotte County this evening with almost a half-inch already in the bucket at my station in North Port.

With dewpoints remaining in the upper-50s, we just didn't have the moisture needed to generate any widespread convective activity this afternoon despite some obvious collisions. Interestingly, the seabreeze was coming in from the NW this afternoon. I have no idea why that happened today.

alorfi

Similar dynamics again today and we even have a bit more moisture at all levels (DP at 63 at the surface and PWATs up around 1.4). The SE flow would push most convection up toward the Tampa area however. Frontal boundary late Wednesday should produce additional lift at that time... I'd lay money that we get a least one or two decent showers by sundown Wednesday.

BTW, our station at Merchants Crossing in Englewood tallied a full inch from the late flare-up that shot through Charlotte County yesterday evening. We haven't even employed their irrigation system once this winter as they've seen almost 15 inches since Dec. 1st. What a difference 50 miles can make!

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Hope to see some action up here today Alorfi. Started out very overcast and foggy here in Tasmpa this morning. I was saying that if this layer stays a bit longer I dont think we will get the heating needed to start some good storms up here. Well it is 78 here with a dewpoint of 67 as I type and the sun is going strong causing the cumulus to build nicely.

CONVECTIVEMIKE

3:20 and the way it looked 2 hours ago with the Towering Cu we had that we were going to get rained on. Still does not appear that we will have anything up here any time soon or even at all today!!!!! Mad