Summer pattern digging in

alorfi · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: Summer pattern digging in

The high pressure off the eastern seaboard is continuing to deepen and the summertime pattern of western seabreeze collisions against the prevalent ESE flow will yield showers and thunderstorms each day for the forseeable future. When I mentioned this setup a few days ago, I was a bit premature in that the atmosphere was too dry, but we are now seeing PWATs approaching 1.6 and this is enough for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our east which should hold together all the way to the coast. With barely sufficient heating, any storms will quickly dissipate as the sun sets.

Obviously we won't all get rainfall on a given afternoon, but this extremely early establishment of the "rainy season" synoptics should provide some more drought relief -- and it will happen during what is normally our driest month of the year.

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 2:19 pm Post subject: Re: Summer pattern digging in

Exactly what I moved to Florida for Very Happy

. Any chance of this being a premature start to the storm season or is this just a teaser for 2 months down the road ? Very Warm and Humid here in TPA with good solid Towering Cumulus to the SE.

chris · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 9:14 pm Post subject: Re: Summer pattern digging in

Great round of rainfall today for Florida. Even though the majority of the rain was inland it was nice to have a little bit rub the coast. I'm guessing since this pattern is staying persistent we may be up for another round of shower activity tomorrow during early afternoon. Lets hope because we need it.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

chris · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: Summer pattern digging in

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MORE LIKE MID SUMMER THAN
APRIL 1. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONVERGING WITH SEA
BREEZE AND LAKE/BAY BREEZES HELPED GET ACTIVITY GOING...WHICH THEN
PROPAGATED AND REDEVELOPED ON OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH WAS ACTUALLY QUITE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ONLY A
FEW REPORTS OF PEA TO 1/2 INCH HAIL.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS NOW SPREAD OUT INTO MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ON THE
WESTERN EDGE ALONG A LARGE WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH POST SUNSET COOLING. OVERNIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH LEFT OVER CLOUDS FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY...THEN EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE THANKS IN PART TO THE RAINS.
FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE...WILL EXPAND PATCHY FOG FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WILL TWEAK POPS AND WX GRIDS TO INDICATED CURRENT ACTIVITY WINDING
DOWN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

alorfi · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject: Re: Summer pattern digging in

We received over 2 inches up in North Port again this evening. The yearly total is now an amazing 16.77 inches up there.

I see no reason why we shouldn't see the same scenario with the seabreeze collisions against the persistent ESE flow for the next couple of days. We are getting moistened up at the lower levels now as a result of the recent rainfall, so I expect to see significant coverages again.

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: Re: Summer pattern digging in

I parked myself on the Courtney Campbell Causeway yesterday afternoon facing SE and what a sky !!!!!!!!! A line of Cumulonimbi lined up solidly from what I could tell from Sarasota to Lakeland. City of Tampa recieved .75 while here by the Airport we barely got a spritz, however a good light show to the east was occuring. Looks like from what I have been looking up this pattern is here for a good week and a half. Weekend forecast here for Tampa shows a front stalling overhead for the weekend with continued instability from the warm air mass and the sea breeze fronts interacting with the frontal boundary. POP's are from 50-70 here. Radar yesterday looked like a Christmas Tree.