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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather: Forums

Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - INVEST 93L-Windward Islands
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INVEST 93L-Windward Islands

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral Online Weather Forum Index -> 2008 Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:12 pm    Post subject: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote

The NHC has started Invest 93L on a convective cluster with excellent rotation that is approaching the Windward Islands.


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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:18 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote


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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:19 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2031 UTC WED JUL 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 1800 080703 0600 080703 1800 080704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 59.7W 14.5N 62.6W 15.9N 65.5W 16.9N 68.2W
BAMD 13.4N 59.7W 14.6N 62.2W 15.8N 64.5W 16.8N 66.6W
BAMM 13.4N 59.7W 14.6N 62.6W 15.9N 65.3W 16.9N 67.7W
LBAR 13.4N 59.7W 14.5N 62.6W 15.9N 65.4W 17.3N 68.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800 080707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 71.1W 19.6N 76.6W 21.5N 82.0W 24.1N 87.0W
BAMD 17.3N 68.5W 17.9N 72.6W 18.6N 76.6W 19.3N 80.6W
BAMM 17.7N 70.1W 19.2N 75.0W 20.9N 79.6W 22.5N 83.6W
LBAR 18.2N 70.4W 20.2N 74.0W 22.7N 76.7W 25.4N 78.9W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 44KTS 46KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 56.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 52.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:38 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote

Watch it while you can because it's about to meet the SHEAR MONSTER and get ripped apart. The shear will enhance the convection and make it look ominous but there is no way a closed surface circulation can form.


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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:29 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote

Invest 93L is chugging along and it's being slammed by wind shear coming from the southwest.
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Lou
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http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/


Last edited by ccstorms on Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:24 am; edited 1 time in total
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chris
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:34 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote

Shocked Yikes, there is nothing left but a bunch of clouds. The shear must have beat the living hell out of it.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:07 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote

Invest 93L has been dropped by the NHC. The wave will continue west.
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:23 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 93L-Windward Islands Reply with quote

The wave that spawned 93L continues to move west and is showing another burst of convection this morning. It would not surprise me if at some point this is once again picked up by the NHC. All this wave needs is a brief period of low shear to get it's act together. Some of the models move this wave into the Gulf and 'hint' at tropical development in the vicinity of the western Gulf. Here's the latest image.


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This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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