GFS wants to start the season early

alorfi

GFS is certainly aggressive in bringing this Pacific system into the Gulf as a strong tropical storm next week. Right now, it is the model outlier, but maybe we get some added moisture from this 10 days down the road.

We should start getting our summertime seabreeze collisions started by this weekend. However, I'm not sure the ESE flow will be quite strong enough to blow storms all the way to the coast yet. Any storms we see here in the Cape will be pretty close to sunset and they die off rapidly this early in the season because there isn't enough deep moisture to allow outflow boundary interactions.

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Wow this early I get into the Action !!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????? Alorfi do you have a link to the info for reading ?

alorfi

Mike, I'm not quite sure what "info" you are seeking. The model consensus is fairly uniform in the establishment of a stong high just south of Bermuda over the weekend and the winds have no other option but to swing around it from the SE. This pumps in deeper moisture (PWATs in the 1.6-inch range by Sunday) and that is marginally sufficient for at least scattered convection that will be moving toward the Gulf Coast from the interior. The one outlier in this whole scenario is the GFS which is still going crazy with a cyclone invading the SW Carribbean. That system could just as easily be snuffed out in the mountains of Central America.

The true rainy season doesn't begin in earnest until most areas have been moistened by some widespread rainfall and we begin holding heavy moisture at the low levels regardless of upper-level heights. As silly as it sounds, we don't start getting there until actual rain falls. So, yes, we have to get some rain to get some rain... if that makes sense.

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Thanks Alorfi. I guess my surmission of thinking that a Bermuda High was not going to form at the right time spites me by just doing that. Makes perfect sense to me. How are the upper level temps doing these days to inhibit some storm formation ?