Tons of rain on Thursday?

alorfi · Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject: Tons of rain on Thursday?

A very nice setup taking shape for some very heavy rainfall in our area on Thursday afternoon and evening. We have a deepening ridge near the FL / GA border with an impressive wave to our south. The stiff E/SE breeze should pin the seabreeze to around the I-75 corridor. PWATs around 2 inches (or more). This is a classic setup for some very impressive rainfall totals in SW Florida.

alorfi · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: Re: Tons of rain on Thursday?

I think this forecast will verify. We have precipitable waters of almost 2.2 inches as a result of that little wave and an absolutely perfect ESE upper-level wind to generate healthy seabreeze collisions to our east. Adding fuel to the fire will be the cold temperatures aloft, so hail and excessive lightning are very likely.

The only thing that sometimes muddles up "perfect storm" scenarios such as this one is that too much moisture results in early cloudiness and we can't properly heat up. This inhibits the seabreeze and we don't get the powerful interactions with the East Coast windflow. Still, virtually all the coastal communities should get in on the action with the stronger easterly flow pushing storms toward the coast. Brace for a bumpy afternoon!

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject: Re: Tons of rain on Thursday?

With that said Al, up here I don't see us getting much because of that mid level cloud deck we have had up here all morning.

FairWthrGal · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: Tons of rain on Thursday?

Sorry Mike but my money's on Al. Have you looked at radar lately? Shocked

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: Tons of rain on Thursday?

This one ? I was saying to myself what the heck is this offshore? Looks like a feeder band!!!!!!!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl...p;smooth=1

FairWthrGal · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 3:34 pm Post subject: Re: Tons of rain on Thursday?

Sun's trying to come out, just a sprinkle of rain earlier - talk about 'much ado about nothing' Confused

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 5:37 pm Post subject: Re: Tons of rain on Thursday?

same up here I'm afraid to say. Looked like the world was going to come to an end here for a while and nada!!!!!!!!!!! Just overcast with a stiff 20 KNT wind breezin' through

alorfi · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: Re: Tons of rain on Thursday?

The lack of a seabreeze held most of the significant precipitation just offshore, but we still saw 87 percent coverage of measurable rain, for whatever that is worth. It's interesting that most of our heaviest rainfall totals and severe weather events occur during rather benign synoptic features, but very deep moisture sometimes nets disappointing results because the clouds block the sun and without the heat the seabreeze does not get cranking. We should return to more normal seabreeze interactions on Friday.