Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject: Bertha
The tropics are about to come alive. In a rare example of total agreement, ALL the global models are now showing tropical development to take place off the African coast as the large tropical wave moves offshore. The GFS which has been forecasting this for over a week has now been joined by the CMC, ECMWF, UKMET, & NOGAPS models.
The forecast track will be partially determined by how fast or slow this system develops. If it develops quickly a more northern track is likely and how northerly the track is would be determined by the strength of the Azores high. Slower development would likely cause a more westward track. In any event, it appears we will be tracking our first Cape Verde system at least a month early.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 5:39 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0852 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008
...CORRECTED TIME OF PRODUCT...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM
IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO
20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
A satellite image taken on July 1, 2008 shows strong tropical wave emerging from Africa with well defined cyclonic turning.(NOAA/2008 EUMETSAT/Handout/Reuters) _________________ Todd
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