Looks like the NHC just bumped up the probability of 92L (20-50%) of becoming a TC within 24-48 hours. It probably won't happen that quick but odds are that it should gain strength as the system chugs along. Never know with these storms though. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Last edited by chris on Tue Jul 01, 2008 9:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
A repeat performance? On July 1, 1996 a tropical wave moved off Africa and on July 5 became a tropical depression. Shortly thereafter it was named Tropical Storm Bertha. Here's the 1996 track.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Now that would be really interesting to see. I pulled up all the text data from that storm on WU and noticed Bertha got up to a Cat 3 and reached winds of 115mph.
Looks like the NHC just bumped up the probability of 92L (20-50%) of becoming a TC within 24-48 hours. It probably won't happen that quick but odds are that it should gain strength as the system chugs along. Never know with these storms though.
How quick it develops will determine the track. A weak system is shallow and will steered by the low level flow. A moderate to strong system is deep and will try to turn poleward. Weak means west and strong means Poleward. The models are anticipating strengthening thus we see a northwest turn to the forecast track as the system will be heading towards a weakness to the north. It is not uncommon to see the models want to turn a system north that forms this far east. Many times the models will start to trend further west if the system doesn't form as quickly as forecast. This will be a wait and see game for a number of days. We may even see a northwest track for a number of days followed by a turn back to the west as blocking high pressure builds to the north. One thing for sure.....it's always interesting. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED JUL 2 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0655 UTC WED JUL 2 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
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