TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC WED JUL 2 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 5:38 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0809 UTC THU JUL 3 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
TD 2 NOW BERTHA. This sets the record for the furthest east a tropical storm has developed. Previous record was in 1996 by..... another Bertha.
WTNT42 KNHC 031458
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008
THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TWO DISTINCT SPIRALING BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 35 KT....THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.
RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. BECAUSE OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE. BERTHA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA WILL APPROACH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS THEREFORE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFDL...GFS...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 48 HOURS WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH AGAIN SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING. THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 TO
96 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS.
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
That would be sweet ... might even get the Sprinkler Nazis to take a break
I know what you mean. They are still out in full force around my neighborhood trying to bust people watering their yards. _________________ Chris
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I know what you mean. They are still out in full force around my neighborhood trying to bust people watering their yards.
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