Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:52 pm Post subject: Re: No fish storm
simeon9benjamin wrote:
I just do not see this being a fish storm the high will just be to strong down the road and it is too strong now for a turn to the north.
Opposite is true actually. The stronger she gets earlier the more likely she will recurve. Euro does take storm to the Bahamas in about a week _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:10 pm Post subject: Re: No fish storm
SW46TER wrote:
simeon9benjamin wrote:
I just do not see this being a fish storm the high will just be to strong down the road and it is too strong now for a turn to the north.
Opposite is true actually. The stronger she gets earlier the more likely she will recurve. Euro does take storm to the Bahamas in about a week
The 18Z GFS is trying to push a 1007 MB TC through a 1020 MB high. That sure doesn't compute. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 5:53 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
The latest model run delays the turn once again as Bertha is not forecast to be as strong. The models that forecast a stronger Bertha show a more northward turn as opposed to a more westward track for the models that forecast a weaker Bertha.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 8:02 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
GFS has adjusted almost to Bermuda before recurve now _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
SW46TER wrote:
GFS has adjusted almost to Bermuda before recurve now
Yes, I would expect that trend to continue. Bertha is moving into very marginal SST's and as the models pickup on the weaker version of Bertha as being more likely, the west trend will continue. It's also interesting to note that the GFS pretty much loses the system near the end of the high resolution run while also showing another CV system heading west and it runs the whole length of the Caribbean. It appears we are getting busy early. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:06 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
ccstorms wrote:
SW46TER wrote:
GFS has adjusted almost to Bermuda before recurve now
Yes, I would expect that trend to continue. Bertha is moving into very marginal SST's and as the models pickup on the weaker version of Bertha as being more likely, the west trend will continue. It's also interesting to note that the GFS pretty much loses the system near the end of the high resolution run while also showing another CV system heading west and it runs the whole length of the Caribbean. It appears we are getting busy early.
Matches up very nicely with the MJO pulse coming across now _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:29 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
By next weekend we could very well have Bertha just off the Carolinas (most likely headed for the Nova Scotia or Newfoundland) in waters very warm for this time of year and the Caribean wave developing and entering the S. Gulf. Good times......... Good chance I'll be putting some money in the Nat. Gas ETF this week as these traders drive the price up as soon as the first palm tree in the Dom. Rep. starts to sway in the wind...... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
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