Bertha is in nearly perfect conditions for continued strengthening and it would not come as a surprise to see it become a major Hurricane before the conditions deteriorate. Bermuda could be under the gun and Florida 'should' be able to breath a sigh of relief but continued monitoring is a must. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Monitoring is definitely a must. It looks as though Bertha will possibly be repeating itself from the 96' storm we talked about earlier in this thread. It will be interesting to run the numbers and compare once it's all said and done. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
On the 12Z model run the GFS, Nogaps, CMC, NAM, GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET all take Bertha to or very close to Bermuda. Most are right at Bermuda while the GFDL and HWRF are near misses to the east. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Latest satellite intensity estimate is a Dvorak rating of 5.0 which equates to 104 mph, pressure 970 MB. Just 11 mph below Cat 3. Here's the latest visible image as it begins to get dark out east. Note the sun shining on the eastern portion of the Eyewall. If recon was over this storm right now they would be talking about the "Stadium Effect" when looking down into the eye.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008
...BERTHA STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES...
1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Bertha is turning into a beaut! Let's just hope the northern shift starts soon but stays away from Bermuda. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
The fact that Bertha is quickly becoming a monster is actually a saving grace for the East Coast as it is much more likely to recurve than it would as a weaker entity. The stall is still on the table though and strange things can happen when these storms sit out there for awhile.....so the Carolinas are not out of the woods yet. There is a rather progressive pattern for July in the Northern tier states and that should spare the coast North of Hatteras as long as this pattern continues. Watching Bertha so far has me hedging that the African dust issues present in the Atlantic Basin the past couple of years are not going to retard storm development to a great extent this year. We may be tracking several doozies out there in the Atlantic this summer and with above normal SST's along the East Coast up to New England, any landfalling Hurricane could very well be strengthening up to actual landfall....even into Long Island/ Cape Cod (if the storm becomes a fast mover). With the MJO pulse coming across, we still have to watch the Gulf for homegrown activity next week.....specifically S. TX/ NE MX. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
The 18Z GFS stalls Bertha for about 48 hours south of Bermuda followed by a drift north. The 18Z NAM slows Bertha to a crawl south of Bermuda. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 0000 UTC
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