Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:39 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
Bertha has gotten so strong and vertically stacked that her main steering flow is now at a higher altitude....thus, this storm is probably not going to stall anymore and will find the weakness in the ridge and recurve. For the East Coast, game...set...and match _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
It's amazing what 24 hours can do to a hurricane. If you look at yesterdays image of Bertha (posted by ccstorms) and today, it seems the eyewall has closed and the storm is losing strength. Is there a logical reason for this? I figured the storm would ramp up higher as it is entering warm water.
It's amazing what 24 hours can do to a hurricane. If you look at yesterdays image of Bertha (posted by ccstorms) and today, it seems the eyewall has closed and the storm is losing strength. Is there a logical reason for this? I figured the storm would ramp up higher as it is entering warm water.
Bertha entrained dry air in from the west into her circulation which.........combined with shear, collapsed the western eye wall _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Thanks Lou. It sure was neat to see her ramp up for that short period of time though. I read on a few blogs saying that Bertha couldve been a borderline cat 4. What do you think? I guess it could have been possible. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Expires:No;;323270
AXNT20 KNHC 090011
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE....
HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 54.8W AT 08/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO
90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS BERTHA BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WINDSHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
53W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 51W-53W. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
When you think how powerful major Hurricanes are it's easy to forget just how fragile they are in spite of all their power. It takes nearly perfect environmental conditions to spin up a tropical disturbance to a Hurricane and it takes absolutely perfect conditions for it to become a major Hurricane. The first pic below is from yesterday when the conditions deteriorated and Bertha needed life support. The second pic is from this afternoon as the conditions improved once again.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Latest Dvorak intensity estimate is 5.4 /pressure 961.8mb/ winds 99.6kt (115 mph). That is a Cat 3. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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