Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1540 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:19 pm Post subject: Is the formation of Bertha a harbinger of an active season?
Lets hope not! I read this on the WU blog by Jeff Masters and found it really interesting and thought I would share.
Quote:
Probably. According the the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."
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