Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:48 pm Post subject: THE GFS SMELLS SOMETHING.
The GFS is once again sniffing out possible tropical development in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave will be exiting the African coastline beginning tonight and the GFS is showing development and brings this system to near the Windward Islands by this time next week. The GFS has also been joined by the ECMWF and it will be interesting to see if other global models jump on board. Also of interest is that the GFS shows Bertha still in the vicinity of Bermuda a week from today. Ouch! _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1540 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject: Re: THE GFS SMELLS SOMETHING.
The wave is actually exiting Africa on a lower latitude than Bertha did. If it does develope it could be trouble. SST's are prime and if shear can relax we could have a major storm on the way. Lets hope not but this is something that definitely needs to be monitored after we saw what Bertha could do this early in the season. _________________ Chris
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Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: THE GFS SMELLS SOMETHING.
As of today's 12Z model runs the GFS and ECMWF have been joined by the CMC, UKMET, and the NOGAPS. All are forecasting development of the wave near the African coast. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 9:38 am Post subject: Re: THE GFS SMELLS SOMETHING.
The GFS continues to forecast tropical development in the eastern Atlantic over the next 24 hours. The area to watch is near 30W to 35 W which is the wave on the right side of the image. The location of Bertha 5 to 7 days from now will play a role in the track of this potential system. If Bertha is slow to pull out to the northeast the GFS system could have a more WNW to NW track as it follows the weakness left by Bertha. Should Bertha pull out as forecast the GFS system will likely have a more westward track as high pressure will build back in behind Bertha.
There is also a strong tropical wave near 45 to 50 west (the wave on the left) that should be watched for development as it approaches the Windward Islands. It looks very healthy and convection has been increasing.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: THE GFS SMELLS SOMETHING.
The 12Z GFS develops the wave at 35W and brings it to near 15N and 50W by Thursday. By Friday it's a tropical cyclone. The GFS take the current wave that is near 50W and has it in the Caribbean near 70W as an open wave by Thursday.
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: THE GFS SMELLS SOMETHING.
The following is the 18Z run of the GFS and I want to stress that any model forecast past 5 days is very unlikely to verify.
The 18Z GFS now has a more southerly track for the potential system near 35W. It brings it near Puerto Rico, the DR, along the north coast of Cuba, through the Florida Straits, into the east gulf, turns it north with landfall near the Florida/Alabama border. Here's the complete run which will likely change 60 times over the next 15 days.
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