WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

from NWS Tampa:

"...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AROUND THE TAMPA
BAY AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING REPORTED OVER WESTERN PASCO
COUNTY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...QUITE A BUSY EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT STILL ONGOING AT 230 AM EDT
WITH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER DATA INDICATING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS JUST WEST OF THE NATURE COASTLINE AND CONTINUING SHOWERS OVER
BASICALLY THE ENTIRE COUNTY OF PINELLAS. NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HILLSBOROUGH HAVE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONTINUING RAIN BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING REPORTED SO FAR. WORST IMPACTED AREAS SO FAR
ARE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PASCO WITH REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE STREET
FLOODING OVER THE AREA AROUND NEW PORT RICHIE AND BAYONET POINT."
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:59 am Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

000
NWUS52 KTBW 130546
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
146 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

.TIME: ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE: ....MAG.... .COUNTY LOCATION..ST..: SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1128 PM HEAVY RAIN NEW PORT RICHEY 28.25N 82.72W
07/12/2008 M2.32 INCH PASCO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

2.32 INCHES OF RAIN AROUND NEW PORT RICHEY IN 30 MINUTES.

1212 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW CLEARWATER 27.92N 82.80W
07/13/2008 M4.01 INCH PINELLAS FL TRAINED SPOTTER

4.01 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE AND A HALF HOURS.

1217 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE HUDSON 28.33N 82.69W
07/13/2008 M3.35 INCH PASCO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODING AND 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR IN
BAYONET POINT.

1235 AM FLOOD 3 SE NEW PORT RICHEY 28.22N 82.68W
07/13/2008 PASCO FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

PASCO FIRE RESCUE REPORTED ON GOING STREET FLOODING AT SR
54 AND SEVEN SPRINGS BLVD.

1251 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE HUDSON 28.33N 82.69W
07/13/2008 PASCO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

BETWEEN 6 TO 8 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ALONG WITH STREET
FLOODING AT BAYONET POINT.

0110 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE NEW PORT RICHEY 28.22N 82.68W
07/13/2008 PASCO FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PASCO FIRE RESCUE REPORTED ONGOING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WITH VEHICLES UNDER WATER NEAR SR 54 AND SEVEN SPRINGS
BLVD. ALSO NEAR 19TH STREET SOUTH OF NEW PORT RICHIE
VEHICLES WERE STRANDED IN RISING WATER.

0115 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 S HUDSON 28.33N 82.70W
07/13/2008 PASCO FL PUBLIC

ONGOING FLOODING NEAR GULFWAY SOUTH OF HUDSON WITH AROUND
9 INCHES OF STANDING WATER.
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN... SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...HOLIDAY... JASMINE ESTATES. * UNTIL 300 AM EDT * AT 156 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADVISED AREA. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS OCCURRING. WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED CONTINUING STREET AND URBAN FLOODING.

ALSO...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED STRANDED VEHICLES NEAR NEW PORT RICHEY...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER ENTERING SEVERAL HOUSES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND INTERSECTIONS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHILE DRIVING. DO NOT USE CRUISE CONTROL DURING TORRENTIAL RAINS. IT COULD CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE IF HYDROPLANING OCCURS.

RAPID RISING STREAMS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY UP TO 1 FOOT. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF NEARBY LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

alorfi · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:32 am Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

Fortunately no training of precipitation bands with the deep westerly flow, but a general 1 to 3 inch coverage over large areas should fall over the next 24 hours. High temperatures may be in the upper-70s for much of the afternoon -- nice relief there!

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

A bit of time to say hello gang. Been here in Miami since Wednesday. My sons surgery went well. Will be here until at least this Wed. Home area seems to have gotten nailed. Usual run of the mill Miami WX here. About 2/3 of an inch here in Miami from a heavy t-storm yesterda afternoon. MOre to come I hear and possibly copiuos amounts.

alorfi · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

We should see a lot of hit-and-miss downpours this afternoon... mostly over inland regions although much of the coastal areas should get wet too. Storms are moving rather quickly, so I don't expect excessive amounts in any one area near the coast.

alorfi · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

Still no signs of any training of bands. I don't know what prompted the NWS to issue that commentary... conditions were not at all favorable for that effect. The deep flow should continue off the Gulf for the next 48 hours, so we can expect continued showers and storms at any time. I love the nighttime storms down here.

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 4:44 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

454 SXUS72
KTBW 131511 RERFMY
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 3.00 INCHES WAS SET AT FORT MYERS - PAGE FIELD YESTERDAY, JULY 12. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.43 INCHES SET IN 1975.
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

alorfi · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH FOR THE "TRAIN".

Ninety percent of the FA populus from Naples to Tampa has received less than an inch of rainfall over the past 48 hours. None of the "training" hypothesized by the NWS materialized because the deep WNW flow pushed most convective activity inland... just as the private firms predicted. No urban flooding occurred and it will not from this system. We did see isolated 2-3 inch rainfall totals inland as a result of the weak steering flow, but none of the prodigious rainfall totals were possible under these synoptic features. I continue to be amazed at the model-mindedness exhibited by the government forecasters as evidenced by this evening's forecast discussion. I found their struggles in reporting PAST weather and total confusion regarding conflicting models most enlightening:

THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT MATERIALIZED RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AND OVER THE AREA IT WAS FORECAST TO.

THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VERY WET ECMWF AND MUCH DRIER NAM...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE GFS AND IT`S MAV GUIDANCE.

Punctuation and grammatical errors aside, I really enjoyed their revisionist history and flailing "blending" of model outputs. Sorry, but the government folks are slowly dissolving themselves into irrelevency.

Look for some nice convection moving in off the Gulf around midnight.