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Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - DOLLY
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DOLLY
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral Online Weather Forum Index -> 2008 Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:31 am    Post subject: DOLLY Reply with quote
The NHC has started Invest 94L for the area near 8.5N, 34.2W, winds 20 kts, pressure 1009 mb.




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Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

Last edited by ccstorms on Sun Jul 20, 2008 3:29 pm; edited 4 times in total
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:38 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:40 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0645 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 0600 080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.8N 36.4W 9.4N 37.8W 9.8N 38.8W 10.2N 40.3W
BAMD 8.8N 36.4W 9.3N 38.0W 9.9N 39.4W 10.6N 40.8W
BAMM 8.8N 36.4W 9.3N 37.9W 9.9N 39.2W 10.6N 40.7W
LBAR 8.8N 36.4W 9.1N 38.0W 9.6N 39.6W 10.2N 41.8W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 0600 080716 0600 080717 0600 080718 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 42.7W 11.4N 49.2W 11.8N 56.3W 11.8N 63.4W
BAMD 11.1N 42.6W 12.2N 47.3W 12.9N 52.2W 13.5N 56.8W
BAMM 10.8N 42.7W 11.4N 48.2W 11.4N 53.9W 10.9N 59.3W
LBAR 10.7N 43.9W 12.2N 49.3W 13.2N 55.2W 14.3N 60.7W
SHIP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 66KTS
DSHP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 34.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 9:03 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
updated: Winds 25 kts, pressure 1008 mb.


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1200 080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 38.5W 9.4N 39.8W 9.6N 41.7W
BAMD 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 39.0W 9.8N 40.7W 10.1N 42.5W
BAMM 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.9W 9.9N 40.4W 10.0N 42.2W
LBAR 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.8W 9.9N 40.8W 10.3N 42.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1200 080716 1200 080717 1200 080718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 44.2W 9.6N 49.8W 8.5N 55.6W 7.6N 60.9W
BAMD 10.4N 44.9W 10.6N 50.3W 10.2N 56.2W 10.3N 62.3W
BAMM 10.0N 44.6W 9.8N 50.1W 8.8N 55.7W 8.0N 61.5W
LBAR 10.7N 45.4W 12.0N 51.2W 12.7N 57.3W 11.5N 62.5W
SHIP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 80KTS
DSHP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 2457
Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:12 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW...IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE DAY...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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simeon9benjamin
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Posts: 3
PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:16 pm    Post subject: TD by tomorrow possible Reply with quote
should not be to long before we see a red box. It is getting organized fast I say TD possible by Monday and Tropical storm Tuesday.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:38 pm    Post subject: Re: TD by tomorrow possible Reply with quote
simeon9benjamin wrote:
should not be to long before we see a red box. It is getting organized fast I say TD possible by Monday and Tropical storm Tuesday.


Agree. It's looking better each hour and your timing for upgrade to TD is right on the money. It should be near the Windward Islands by late Friday or early Saturday. Very Happy
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:41 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
18Z plot for Invest 94L.

9.3N, 38.2W, 25 kts, 1008 mb.
_________________
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Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 6:12 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
The 18Z GFS at 96 hours:


GFS at 126 hours:

_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 6:25 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
Latest image.


_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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