Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 8:22 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
The GFS is once again much too quick to recurve this system now located near 40. This one to me is a real threat to be a tropical storm in a few days and a hurricane by next weekend. It's definitely coming further west on a more southern latitude than Bertha. This is one Florida should track. After that, things may quiet a bit in the Atlantic until the next MJO pulse in mid-August _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
SW46TER wrote:
The GFS is once again much too quick to recurve this system now located near 40. This one to me is a real threat to be a tropical storm in a few days and a hurricane by next weekend. It's definitely coming further west on a more southern latitude than Bertha. This is one Florida should track. After that, things may quiet a bit in the Atlantic until the next MJO pulse in mid-August
Good morning Jeff. The GFS also has other problems this morning. It appears the 06Z GFS is a bad run. It completely loses the system. It will probably reappear (maybe) in the 12Z run. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
Good morning Lou...............Yeah, I just looked at the 6z. I don't know which is worse....our computer models tropical competence or the financial system models the Fed is using to head the country into inflationary submission _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
The latest visible image shows that 94L is starving for convection. While it has good structure, note the classic 'S' shape, and has some decent banding, the convection necessary for further development is lacking. It may be that 94L broke away from the ITCZ too soon before it established a low pressure center capable of producing the convergence necessary to sustain itself without being fed by the ITCZ. Now it's a question of whether 94L can survive at all with the feeding tube removed. It needs to develop convection over the center to create an established surface circulation which will make 94L self sustaining, capable of feeding itself. Does the GFS see this problem and that's why it dropped 94L? I have no clue. We will find out when the 12Z model run comes out.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 11:14 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
Should 94L develop, Recon will be ready.
NOUS42 KNHC 141400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 14 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-044
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
16/1800Z NEAR 13.0N AND 54.0W AND BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AT 17/0600Z, ALSO A GIV MISSION
FOR 17/0000Z. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Today's 12Z GFS shows the system but loses it almost immediately. This is an initialization problem or the GFS expects no development and keeps 94L as an open wave while moving it through the Caribbean. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 15 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-045
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 16/1545Z
D. 13.5N 56.0W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 02AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/0400Z
D. 14.0N 60.0W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES AT 17/1800Z
IF THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
The continued lack of convection.... weaker state of this system is causing it to go further South than I originally anticipated. Thus it is going below the islands which does not bode well for development in July as lower pressures over S. America and a persistent easterly flow usually retard development. Thus, if this system is to become a storm it will be off the Yucatan.....a western Gulf threat more than Florida _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:25 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
Invest 94L has made a big comeback overnight and it is looking quite healthy this morning. The NHC has increased the potential for 94L to become a tropical depression and Recon will investigate the system later today.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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The GFS also has other problems this morning. It appears the 06Z GFS is a bad run. It completely loses the system. It will probably reappear (maybe) in the 12Z run. 
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