Recon just reported 71 kts flight level which would be 65 kts at the surface....which means Hurricane. That coupled with the 985 MB pressure reading should be enough to upgrade to Hurricane. We will find out in about 10 minutes. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Vortex message say's 65 kts at the surface. Hurricane.
Storm DOLLY: Observed By Air Force #307
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 68KT (78.2mph 125.9km/h) In NW Quadrant At 18:52:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 61.2KT (70.4mph 113.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR ;
Date/Time of Recon Report: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 4:20:00 PM (Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:20:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 24° 35' N 095° 16' W (24.6°N 95.3°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2973m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 65KT (74.75MPH 120.4km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 10nm (11.5miles) From Center At Bearing 195°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 65KT (74.75mph 120.4km/h) From 303°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 12nm (13.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 196°
Minimum pressure: 986mb (29.12in)
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 3nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
...DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE
SEASON...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS
986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Looking at the structure of Dolly and the continued convective bursts, I see no reason why this storm won't continue to intensify. With the slowing of the forward speed extending the time until landfall I can expect the NHC to raise the landfall wind speed from the current 80 kts. Even at the current rate of intensification which is not extreme, Dolly could easily make landfall as a moderate to strong Cat 2. I still can't rule out a Major Hurricane before landfall and I still expect landfall between Corpus Christi and Brownsville.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
pressure continues to fall. now at 984 mb. Also note the comment at the bottom. Earlier today there was a 10 mile difference between the location of the surface center and the mid level center. That is now down to 5 miles which means the system is becoming more vertically stacked. Another plus for continued intensification. Also the core temp is three degrees Celsius warmer than the exterior.
URNT12 KNHC 222221
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 22/22:00:10Z
B. 24 deg 44 min N
095 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2967 m
D. 66 kt
E. 311 deg 20 nm
F. 048 deg 062 kt
G. 311 deg 033 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 10 C/ 3035 m
J. 13 C/ 3053 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 1604A DOLLY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 20:29:30 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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