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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather: Forums

Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - DOLLY
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DOLLY
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral Online Weather Forum Index -> 2008 Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 2457
Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:10 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 66.1W 13.4N 69.2W 14.5N 72.5W 15.5N 75.9W
BAMD 12.9N 66.1W 12.7N 68.4W 13.0N 70.9W 13.8N 73.3W
BAMM 12.9N 66.1W 13.2N 69.0W 14.1N 71.8W 15.2N 74.5W
LBAR 12.9N 66.1W 13.0N 69.2W 13.6N 72.7W 14.4N 76.4W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 79.7W 18.9N 87.1W 19.5N 92.3W 20.5N 94.9W
BAMD 14.8N 75.8W 17.0N 80.8W 18.9N 85.7W 20.7N 89.9W
BAMM 16.6N 77.6W 19.3N 83.9W 21.3N 89.3W 23.8N 93.4W
LBAR 15.4N 80.2W 18.0N 86.6W 21.6N 91.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 57KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 46KTS 57KTS 47KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 62.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 58.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
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http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:22 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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Posts: 2457
Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:38 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080718 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 71.0W 14.7N 74.4W 15.7N 78.0W 16.8N 81.6W
BAMD 13.7N 71.0W 14.2N 73.4W 15.0N 76.1W 16.1N 78.8W
BAMM 13.7N 71.0W 14.6N 73.8W 15.6N 76.8W 16.8N 79.8W
LBAR 13.7N 71.0W 14.5N 74.1W 15.5N 77.5W 16.7N 80.8W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 85.0W 18.6N 89.8W 19.5N 92.8W 21.0N 94.6W
BAMD 17.2N 81.4W 19.1N 86.2W 21.2N 90.2W 22.7N 92.6W
BAMM 18.0N 82.7W 19.9N 87.6W 22.2N 91.6W 24.2N 94.2W
LBAR 17.9N 84.1W 20.3N 89.9W 23.2N 94.4W 25.0N 96.6W
SHIP 54KTS 67KTS 74KTS 74KTS
DSHP 54KTS 56KTS 44KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 68.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 64.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:24 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
Recon is approaching 94L and I will be posting the reports as they come in.


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Lou
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:42 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
So far nothing of interest to report on the recon flight. Have not seen any reports of winds above 20 kts. No closed circulation found yet.
_________________
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:16 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
pressure 1009 mb
winds 30 mph.
need to find west winds to close off a circulation and upgrade to a depression.
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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ccstorms
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Posts: 2457
Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:24 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
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http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:41 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
Plane returning to base. No upgrade.
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Lou
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chris
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Posts: 1540
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:31 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
Floater 2 is now tracking 94L.


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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:38 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote
Well it figures. It appears that 94L has decided to get it's act together right after the recon plane left. Looks like a definite surface circulation is developing with banding wrapping in. If my assumption is correct it could spin up very quickly.
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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