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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather: Forums

Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - DOLLY
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DOLLY
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral Online Weather Forum Index -> 2008 Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:58 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

plane returing to base. No closed surface circulation. No upgrade.
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This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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Manuel
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Location: Front Royal VA

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:31 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote



Here is a map of offshore oil rigs. I think the price will spike as early as Monday, but more because of the situation with Iran than because of the "D" storm...

PS: The track was that of Rita.

My guess at "center" location: 16.6N 79.3W
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alorfi
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:52 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

The price of oil has fallen dramatically over the past week since President Bush rescinded the executive ban on drilling. You will see gas prices DROP next week as a result.
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Manuel
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 10:36 pm    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

I agree. They are dropping now and will drop at the beginning of the week, so I suggest filling it up around Monday. But for several reason, including the future Gulf storm, I think they will go up next week. I've already seen them drop 5-10 cents in my town in the past couple of days. Time will tell. In the meantime, I think this storm is a little farther north than where the models initialize it, so a strike on Texas is not out of the question. Also, it is getting better organized.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:45 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

Recon is in 94L and has reported a pressure of 1004 MB. More to follow as it comes in.
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:47 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote


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Lou
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Manuel
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:57 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

Stay tuned! Methinks Dolly by 11, and farther north than had been indicated.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:21 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

This is being upgraded. NHC file update.

Atlantic storm # 04, 16.5N, 82.2W, winds 35 kts, pressure 1007 mb,
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:33 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

updated

Atlantic storm #04, 12Z, 17.9N, 83.5W, WINDS 40 kts, pressure 1008, TS,

it's DOLLY.
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:12 am    Post subject: Re: DOLLY Reply with quote

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 0000 080721 1200 080722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 83.5W 19.0N 86.5W 20.1N 89.2W 21.3N 91.3W
BAMD 17.9N 83.5W 18.8N 86.1W 19.6N 88.6W 20.7N 90.8W
BAMM 17.9N 83.5W 18.9N 86.1W 19.8N 88.6W 21.0N 90.8W
LBAR 17.9N 83.5W 19.2N 86.4W 20.4N 89.4W 21.8N 92.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 55KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 38KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080722 1200 080723 1200 080724 1200 080725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 93.2W 25.6N 96.4W 26.6N 100.0W 26.7N 105.2W
BAMD 21.9N 92.7W 24.3N 95.4W 25.2N 97.8W 24.9N 102.2W
BAMM 22.3N 92.8W 24.6N 95.9W 25.2N 99.0W 24.9N 103.7W
LBAR 23.2N 94.5W 26.3N 96.9W 27.9N 97.8W 29.4N 99.7W
SHIP 68KTS 79KTS 78KTS 76KTS
DSHP 43KTS 55KTS 37KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 77.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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