Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - CRISTOBAL
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.5N 80.3W 31.3N 80.9W 32.4N 81.5W 33.0N 81.8W
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W
BAMM 30.5N 80.3W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.8W 32.2N 80.9W
LBAR 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.4W 31.6N 80.8W 32.6N 80.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 24KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.8N 81.6W 34.5N 79.5W 34.7N 74.7W 36.1N 69.6W
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W
BAMM 32.6N 80.7W 32.9N 79.2W 32.3N 75.5W 32.5N 72.8W
LBAR 33.7N 80.3W 35.5N 78.1W 37.7N 73.6W 44.9N 66.3W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 41KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:29 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.
POSITIVES
--------
850 MB VORTICITY GOOD.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE GOOD.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE GOOD.
WIND SHEAR VALUES GOOD.
WATER TEMPS GOOD.
POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY THE GULF STREAM.
NEGATIVES
---------
PROXIMITY TO LAND.
POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/
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capecodder Advanced Member Joined: Sep 06, 2006 Posts: 51 Location: cape cod
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:01 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
Looks like a Carolina threat.
Developing pretty fast.. Hopefully, it won't get further North.
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
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ccstorms Senior Member Joined: Jul 10, 2006 Posts: 1885 Location: Cape Coral
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SW46TER Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1121
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
capecodder wrote: Looks like a Carolina threat.
Developing pretty fast.. Hopefully, it won't get further North.
This should continue to develop and become a TS before it reaches NC later this weekend. As far as New England is concerned, it would need to become stronger......probably a cane to pull in and hook up with a trough to the north that would guide it up the East Coast rather than having it fade ENE from the Carolinas in a weaker state or die out over land. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
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