000
NOUS42 KNHC 181555
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT FRI 18 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-048
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(OFF S.E. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBB INVEST
C. 19/1445Z
D. 32.6N 78.8W
E. 19/1630Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBB CYCLONE
C. 20/0245Z
D. 33.7N 77.3W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK...CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
"THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL
INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH
CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Just to stick my 2 cents in.............We are in the middle of peak beach tourist season. We have a system right along the coast that is getting better organized. Why are we worried today about flying into a marginal system in the Caribbean and not until tomorrow for a threat right on our shore???? This can blow up quickly and surprise many uninformed people.........It just makes no sense to me _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Just to stick my 2 cents in.............We are in the middle of peak beach tourist season. We have a system right along the coast that is getting better organized. Why are we worried today about flying into a marginal system in the Caribbean and not until tomorrow for a threat right on our shore???? This can blow up quickly and surprise many uninformed people.........It just makes no sense to me
Since it only costs two cents I will ante up.
First off, recon is not necessary. 96L is sitting in an area that provides a wealth of information. It is in range of three different NWS radars, numerous Buoys, C-man stations, a whole fleet of ship reports, and some guy playing with his rubber duck at the beach. It's also very obvious that it's not going anywhere fast, so it won't sneak up on Grandma while she's asleep in her beach house on the outer banks. Satellite images provide all the other necessary info required to monitor the system and you can be sure if the convective increase continues, the radar returns increase, the Buoy reports of wind speed increase, and pressure falls are recorded, the NHC will upgrade it. There was absolutely no reason to task a recon flight into a system that is covered by so many resources. Actually up until just one hour ago 96L had no convective concentration near the center. Last NHC 'best track' update at 1800Z is 31.2N and 80.4W, wind 25 kts, pressure 1012 mb. That's a one MB drop in the last 42 hours and a 10 kt increase in 42 hours. That's my two cents. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
96L is now tropical depression three. details shortly. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Just to stick my 2 cents in.............We are in the middle of peak beach tourist season. We have a system right along the coast that is getting better organized. Why are we worried today about flying into a marginal system in the Caribbean and not until tomorrow for a threat right on our shore???? This can blow up quickly and surprise many uninformed people.........It just makes no sense to me
Since it only costs two cents I will ante up.
First off, recon is not necessary. 96L is sitting in an area that provides a wealth of information. It is in range of three different NWS radars, numerous Buoys, C-man stations, a whole fleet of ship reports, and some guy playing with his rubber duck at the beach. It's also very obvious that it's not going anywhere fast, so it won't sneak up on Grandma while she's asleep in her beach house on the outer banks. Satellite images provide all the other necessary info required to monitor the system and you can be sure if the convective increase continues, the radar returns increase, the Buoy reports of wind speed increase, and pressure falls are recorded, the NHC will upgrade it. There was absolutely no reason to task a recon flight into a system that is covered by so many resources. Actually up until just one hour ago 96L had no convective concentration near the center. Last NHC 'best track' update at 1800Z is 31.2N and 80.4W, wind 25 kts, pressure 1012 mb. That's a one MB drop in the last 42 hours and a 10 kt increase in 42 hours. That's my two cents.
I guess I will respectfully disagree as I always thought the main mission was to protect U.S. lives and property. The system along the coast can pose a threat in the short term as it is in an area where storms have spun up rapidly. The flair up late this afternoon is too early to be nocturnal. What is the harm of getting a plane in the upper levels to take a look? This is the same crap that happened with Alex, Humberto and I believe it was Gaston. They got there a day late and a dollar short. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 0000 UTC
All times are GMT - 4 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3, 4Next
Page 2 of 4
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
Weather
Radar
Satellite
Lightning
Forecast
Tropics
Almanac
Live Products
Fishing Reports
Other Info
Weblinks
Site Sponsors
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Check your private messages
Log in
New Today: 0
Online Stats: