TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM
THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
TD-3 still has to cope with 2 negative factors. The close proximity to land and dry air entrainment. Having said that, it only needs a little intensification to be upgraded to a tropical storm.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
Recon is in the air. reports to follow. recon is also in the air for 94L. Will have those reports also. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 12:49 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 16:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 3 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1 (See all URNT11 messages from this mission.)
Observation Number: 03
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Saturday, 16:26Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 31.8N 80.2W (View map)
Location: 41 miles (66 km) to the SE (129°) from Hilton Head Island, SC, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 14 knots (From the NW at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1016 mb (extrapolated)
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 300° at 15 knots (From the WNW at ~ 17.2 mph) _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
43 knots
(49.4 mph) _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:47 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
Storm #03 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #03: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: July 19, 2008 17:01:40 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 32 ° 43 ' N 078 ° 20 ' W (32.72° N 78.33° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 25 Knots (28.75 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 049 Nautical Miles (56.35 miles) From Center At Bearing 261°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 032 Knots (36.8 MPH) From 006°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 004 Nautical Miles (4.6 Miles) From Center At Bearing 267°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1007 Millibars (29.735 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21°C (69.8°F) / 309 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 22°C (71.6°F) / 302 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 21°C (69.8°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were INBOUND 32 KT W Quadrant at 17:00:20 Z
2: Maximum Flight Level WIND 0UTBOUND 45 KT NE QUAD 17:17:30Z
3: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
WTNT33 KNHC 191746
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION......32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:20 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
Storm #03 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #03: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: July 19, 2008 18:36:10 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 32 ° 50 ' N 078 ° 02 ' W (32.83° N 78.03° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 28 Knots (32.2 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 52 Nautical Miles (59.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 302°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 029 Knots (33.35 MPH) From 040°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 053 Nautical Miles (60.95 Miles) From Center At Bearing 307°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1006 Millibars (29.706 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 22°C (71.6°F) / 307 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 23°C (73.4°F) / 304 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 21°C (69.8°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 44 KT NE Quadrant at 17:16:50 Z
2: Maximum Flight Level WIND 58 KT SW QUAD 18:41:30 Z
3: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL
Cristobal seems to be slipping into a drug induced Coma. Overdose of dry
air. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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