Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 9:08 am Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE NRL. (NAVY)
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 030530Z AUG 08//
WTNT01 KNGU 030600
UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.4N 87.0W TO 27.7N 89.6W DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF PENSACOLA, FLORIDA. LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE
REGION SHOW 15 TO 20 KT SURFACE WINDS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES
SLOWLY FALLING. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (84F - 86F) AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 451 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008 ..
.A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FLOODING LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY... .AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS AND PILE WATER UPON EAST FACING SHORES OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA GENERALLY EAST OF GRAND ISLE. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY INCREASE TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE MONDAY
LAZ040-062-064-068>070-MSZ080-031800- /O.NEW.KLIX.CF.A.0002.080804T0300Z-080805T0600Z/ ST. TAMMANY-ORLEANS-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK- 451 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THE BAY OF SAINT LOUIS MISSISSIPPI TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE RIGOLETS AND THE LAKE BORGNE SHORES. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR LAKE MAUREPAS AT THIS TIME. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD BELOW THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TIDES MAINLY ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS. NAVIGATION LOCK OPERATIONS MAY BE AFFECTED DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES IN THE WATCH AREA ARE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:09 am Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WONT41 KNHC 031456
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 2:06 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
Recon is now in the system.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 17:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Sunday, 17:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.4N 87.6W (View map)
Location: 143 miles (230 km) to the S (189°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 210 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 32 knots (From the SE at ~ 36.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (extrapolated)
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 140° at 30 knots (From the SE at ~ 34.5 mph)
Remarks Section:
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 30 knots (~ 34.5mph) _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
18Z
28.3N, 88.0W, Winds 30 kts, Pressure 1010 MB. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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